I left the bullish divergence lines I drew (cyan) in my previous analysis since I was called out about my hanging onto it. The divergence played out and we are looking at a 0.06-7 bounce already.
I feel the need to remind everyone that my analysis isnt meant for long term, or even intermediate term, but generally less than a week, and even more so, 2-3 days. So, when I point out a divergence its not to say the overall trend is reversing but that the near term trend is. Yes, that could turn into a more long term situation, but unlike everyone else, Im not pretending to be able to predict the market.
Wave 5 ended perfectly at the 0.786 fib of Wave 3, and is currently at the 0.618 fib of Wave 5, which is usually a good spot for a Wave A scenario. Furthermore, there appears to be a bearish flag forming, which I plotted. a break down through the lower trend-line would likely confirm the ABC correction wave, which... as much as I hate to say it, could lead us far below 0.45.
I would want to see a continued run up past 0.61 to start seeing real confirmation of a bounce from 0.50.
Pay close attention to the 4H RSI trend-line plotted, or for a reversal in 4H Fisher.
The 4H LOI is retracing a bit, but with no confidence. In fact it looks like a bear flag. However, looking back, I see bounces at this level in LOI. See the chart shot I posted below in comments.
Please let me know if you have any questions or comments.
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As always, this is my personal observation and analysis of the market and is not intended to be trading advice.
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