XLM/USDT Secondary trend. 14 01 2024

14 ene

Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. Local trend.

After breaking (breaking) the resistance of the descending wedge (trend), a sidewall is formed (accumulation zone with 3 local zones).


On the linear this “sawing” looks like this.




Local trading situation (reversal zone now).




To understand this zone more clearly, see the old ideas that are relevant now - the primary and secondary trends (links to the ideas below).


Primary trend (publication March 2022)

XLM/USD Primary Trend. Time frame 1 week. Squeeze channel

Secondary Trend (publication 06 2022) Without a link in a search engine, the site is not searchable because the publication is not public previously.

XLM/USDT Secondary Trend. Wedge

14 ene

Nota

Like all Ripple group pilot assets for central banks (it's not actually XRP, and that's the whole point), XLM has been in super profits since 2017. But this is not a problem as most crypto coins after 2 market cycles have already been redistributed (2017 and 2021 allocations). In addition, 50% of the former coins have been burned, before the 2021 cycle starts.

Given liquidity, capitalization, well, and the logic of the chart (main trend, emphasis on 2017), there can hardly be an inadequate pump on XXX until the end of the 2025 cycle. But like any other similar asset depending on its liquidity will give about +800% from average set (accumulation) price to average reset (distribution) price.

The exception that a "superdriver" might make is some massive play with CBDC. But until then, all CBDC pilot blockchains have not shown any "fallout from the general market cycle". That's why they're pilots.... Although, when the central banks of the states launch their CBDCs on a mass scale, the situation may change. But remember, a pilot project can remain a pilot project, especially when media PR is evident. Therefore, do not be squeamish about profits and do not be attached to the ticker name.

Perhaps, if the market significantly "bites its nose" (final "unexpected" capitulation before the "participation" phase in 2024), XLM, like other crypto-assets, will follow the general trend. But in the long run, the ultra-fast, low-cost, micro-transaction (payment) supporting pilot blockchain for CBDC states by the central banks of states is hardly threatened. At least all such blockchains will have a number of immunities of advantage from the states, unlike speculative "crypto beasts" with imitation utility, which at any rustle from the regulator are crooks.

15 feb

Nota

15 02 2024 Potential for significant local pumping around 50-100% from the 0.113180 level reversal zone

29 feb

Nota

29 02 2024 price is at the triangle resistance zone (exit from the accumulation of a large pamp - bowl). In case of a breakthrough and realization of the formation potential +100-140% Possibly with a long #Stop Loss, and possibly without it (more likely scenario).

29 jul

Nota

28 07 2024 Breakthrough of a large symmetrical triangle upwards by a false breakout into the level zone of 0.195999, about +40% and from this accumulation resistance zone a rollback to the lower zone of the channel to the reversal level (yellow) 0.0754. Rebound - impulse to the accumulation channel meridian, now a local rollback.

🟢Holding the meridian - local implementation of the pennant and price growth to the channel resistance.

🔴Failure to hold this support zone - decline to local minimums, which is the support of the accumulation channel. Possible removal and collection of liquidity. Then, like the entire market - a strong rise in prices, that is, the implementation of the bowl (slightly lower).

Any purchase in this accumulation - redistribution zone is acceptable from the position of the main trend.

If you compare it with XRP (the same creators and blockchain technology), then stellar has an order of magnitude greater potential:

1️⃣ No news background to lure "stupid money". That is, fewer fairy tales like the twin brother: "buy XRP - sell in another universe for $ 589" and the like. That is, they "plant" less.

2️⃣ The most important thing. Real, quiet, promotion and development of this blockchain in the development of state CBDCs of many countries. The price in such a matter does not matter at all, as this is not a speculative direction, before the stage of mass implementation. If, testing CBDC in "backward" countries justifies itself (now this is negativity and rejection, conditionally on a "pause"). This is not only Africa (Nigeria) and Ukraine, but also the USA. If Camila is made president, then they will choose this blockchain (most likely the developments and solutions from it) from 3 options for CBDC, which is currently being tested in private, with a high degree of probability.

3️⃣ Tempo.eu, MoneyGram - instant and conditionally free transfers for EU citizens using this blockchain. At the moment, it is temporarily stopped due to an unclear prospect of regulation in the crypto-banking sector.

4️⃣ 63% of all cryptocurrencies are now in circulation, unlike XRP.

5️⃣ An order of magnitude less "planted" than in XRP, therefore, lower capitalization, therefore "seller's burden".

6️⃣ Due to lower capitalization, as a consequence, lower liquidity, which has both a good and a bad side (locally), from price slippage. That is, there is a greater potential for price growth in percentage terms.

7️⃣ Remember, XRP and XLM themselves are now in accumulation zones - redistribution after inadequate pumping (tens of thousands%) in 2017 (a tactical move for the future). In the chat, I talked about the meaning of tactical long-term manipulation and what the main task of "smart money" is solved by this.

29 jul

Nota

By the way, the width of the bowl itself, that is, its circumference, is a convention. It is important that the price is in the range of the accumulation channel, that is, the 2nd phase of the bowl formation. And only when there is a breakthrough of the resistance of this channel and the 3rd phase is realized, that is, confirmation of the bowl formation (pump to previous highs).

29 jul

Operación activa

Linear for clarity. This horizontal channel (823 days 2.2 years) is now for work and the purpose of the participation phase when exiting (breakthrough, resistance break) from it (about 4X). Most likely, this will happen from October 2024 to January 2025 (probability).

The potential for standard market movement and cycle development cannot be inadequately large (unlike "fresh", future hype crypto) in % terms of similar old assets "super pump 2017" with large capitalization. Especially now from the accumulation - redistribution zone (3rd cycle), since the price is not cheap in the main trend. This must be understood. This has been said more than once. Although for such liquidity and capitalization, the goals are large for traders, but not for hamsters and gambling addicts.

The full maximum potential will be revealed when tested CBDCs are urgently launched. When this will happen, no one knows, including the organizers of such event swings, because this requires a trigger - an event, and people's reaction to it. To scare and save. It is quite possible when the "bank collapse" begins (bankruptcy of small and medium-sized banks, absorption by large ones).

Then, perhaps, assets (usually closed blockchains) that are associated with the introduction of CBDC will be widely advertised by themselves, and this will have a positive effect on their prices, regardless of the general trend of cryptocurrencies. That is, prices will rise against the market, or significantly ahead of it during the pump. At such moments, "panic buying" is possible, which can provoke "pumps with a stick" by a large %.

Therefore, assets (it is difficult to call them blockchains, although they are presented as such) like XRP (doubtful), XLM, TRX, HBAR, ALGO and the like are rational to hold (not necessarily, as you can "break down over a long period of time") a non-critical amount as an investment, to take extra profit on such a non-standard situation 589 (this is not a price, wake up finally) in the future.

15 nov

Nota

11/15/2024 another price movement +70.68% to the resistance of the accumulation channel 0.14. High probability of exiting accumulation and changing the market phase to "participation". Everything is as before and nothing can change.

Linear for understanding the phase of the asset and removing the "market noise" of the candlestick price chart. "Throw away the magnifying glass" when considering cryptocurrency charts, and you will see a large profit over time, and some, and quite possibly a huge profit.

18 nov

Nota

18 11 2024 +180% (or +80% from the previous local reversal zone, the resistance of the set channel) exactly at the level of 0.2297, a local rollback. There will be a local cut under the zone, then continued pumping and further formation of a large pump bowl.

18 nov

Nota

23 nov

Nota

23 11 2024 on the previously specified date pump stick. At the moment, from the level of 0.1273 exactly +333% on the candlestick chart. Pump "stick continues". The price is above the bullish median of the large channel. This is the implementation of the 3rd phase of the pump bowl, the 2nd phase of which is long-term accumulation with a step of +70%. Naturally, there is potential, but protect your profit. Transfer to lagging assets, with similar long-term formations, on which everything will be exactly the same.

23 nov

Nota

13 11 2024 locally this is what the pump zone looks like +333% Protect your profit or transfer to other lagging assets.

24 nov

Operación cerrada: objetivo alcanzado

24 11 2024 More than 7 X from the main zone of local accumulation. From the breakthrough of the resistance of the accumulation channel 4 X. Now they will make a "helicopter". Naturally, this is not the end... I repeat once again, the profit is significant, in a very short period of time, it is rational to pour it into lagging assets before their prices rise.