XLF normally moves quite slowly, but we may may be at a moment in which that accelerates substantially, even improving on what has been a phenomenal year.
Weekly -
Daily -
The EW path drawn is what may be expected most commonly - we're looking for that or better.
Weekly -
Daily -
The EW path drawn is what may be expected most commonly - we're looking for that or better.
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Here is the XLF / Spy spread - if this ends up trending impulsively to the upside then we'll know we're in the right place.
And here's a 5 minute chart. The pink and purple 1-2s could also be an ABC and we're starting the rally with a leading diagonal (just like the spread chart), and that goes for all of the indexes as well... it's normal but we could have a bit of chop before we really get going if that's the case. Will update soon - but we'll know if we end up getting a 4th wave to 50% before we reach the 138%.
And here's a 5 minute chart. The pink and purple 1-2s could also be an ABC and we're starting the rally with a leading diagonal (just like the spread chart), and that goes for all of the indexes as well... it's normal but we could have a bit of chop before we really get going if that's the case. Will update soon - but we'll know if we end up getting a 4th wave to 50% before we reach the 138%.
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Try again - here is the spread chart :-D
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Until this spread gains some traction, XLG won't be outpacing the market. If it is a leading diagonal as labelled then it will hopefully stay over the 50% retracement then it has a shot at establishing itself.
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As semis are leading the market, I definitely like SMH holding 38% for a 4th wave here.
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Whoops posted as a comment lol
Here's an update, possible 1-2 1-2, possible diagonal and or worst case it is just an abc up (not labelled)- which seems unlikely unless Friday's rally is a headfake... TBD :-D
Here's an update, possible 1-2 1-2, possible diagonal and or worst case it is just an abc up (not labelled)- which seems unlikely unless Friday's rally is a headfake... TBD :-D
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XLK looking similar to SMH, holding a 4th wave fib at 50%... if it stays above that this chart could have the clearest targets with fibs lined up at the top of the channel.
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And lastly XLF did outpace SPY on Friday which is a great sign for this trade - if everything holds Friday's low we should be headed higher.
Operación cerrada: objetivo alcanzado:
Unfortunately, the reaction to this most recent decline is not bullish, and the wave short term structure in SMH confirms this. This leads me to believe a selloff is imminent. A selloff here confirms the break of our long term trend line... which could mean we are getting the last 4th wave in the longer term impulse and near to a top.
Wow, on further examination I have a high degree of confidence XLF is going to follow this fractal directly lower.
Wow, on further examination I have a high degree of confidence XLF is going to follow this fractal directly lower.
Fundamentally (I wish it would let me paste the images) we are basically getting a third Zweig Breadth Thrust, we just made a massive turn to oversold and back again (80-80-80 Signal), and historically we rebound very well 80% of the time after a down month when Dec, Jan, and Feb were positive (Turn of the Year Hat Trick)...
So I have some reasonable confidence this is going to work out... and if I'm right about going into a 5th wave I think XLF options will pay better than everything except for maybe SMH calls.