BTC Risk Asset

8 abr 2020

Bitcoin is a risk asset, there is no evidence, to me, that suggests anything otherwise. As much as I'd like this to V-bottom recover, I think it is much more likely that we see consolidation after such a volatile down move. I'm not trying to predict that the low is in or not, what I am predicting is that we see sideways consolidation and coiling of price before we see another major trend. If we want to see another bull market in Bitcoin price needs time to consolidate, V-bottoms rarely lead to major trends. Most major trends occur after a violent move and a period of consolidation, the same goes for the equities market.

The lower time frame looks like a bear flag to me, I'm watching low to mid 8000s for a short/hedge area, retesting our down trend line.

10 abr 2020

Nota

One thing I think people discount about BTC is the fact that it's only existed in a bull market in the equities market. BTC's 2 most recent peaks and major pull backs also lined up closely with major up moves/blow-off tops and pull backs in the equities market.

BTC went to ATH in 2017 and that can be mirrored in the liquidity surge into most risk assets (stocks, real estate, etc) during that same time period. BTC has always been closely correlated to the up and down moves within the equity market just with higher beta (Volatility). So when stocks pumped, BTC pumped harder, when they pullback back BTC pulled back harder.

This is why I believe Bitcoin should be focused on as a risk asset and until the overall equity market shows a willingness to trend up again there is no reason to believe BTC is going to decouple and start it's own trend to ATH.

BTW, I am a Bitcoin bull because I own Bitcoin and am very much invested in its success. So I'd absolutely love to be wrong about all this.

1 may 2020

Nota

Well then!

Unfortunately I didn't trade as well as I analyzed. We are at an interesting point less than 2 weeks from halving.

With the current state of the world and the tight correlation between BTC and the Equities market I am focused purely on the charts rather than an FA. For now it is looking like we have formed a top, how low we dip and do you buy it is the million dollar questions.

I am watching and looking get in margin longs and add to spot holdings at the below areas.

$7400-$7800
$6800-$7100
$6000-$6400

Could we go lower, absolutely, but if BTC is going to have another parabolic bull market these prices will look godly in a few years.