BTCUSD: Bitcoin Next Trade-Points from Here

2 ago 2018 BTCUSD:
Bitcoin Update 2nd August 09:54 Bst 05:54 Est
Bitcoin made the double bottom at 7465 after a little spike lower to 7453 on low volume overnight before reversing higher again.
It's still a little weird that it stopped where it did. It may be manipulation and maybe not. It's not easy to say for sure. But it was a little strange and means we need to stay alert to signals and not trade too much on hope values - that's easier said than done sometimes . But signals beat hope usually.

During the course of the overnight session Bitcoin has managed to climb back above the 7661 line but there's no volume now.

There's near term support at 7625 - has to hold up here on retests to stay in with a decent chance of pushing higher to 7788 again.
Resistance extends from 7788 up to 7824 and it should then move sideways for a while inside the range from 7788-7824 at the highs and 7661-7625 at the lows, but 7625 has to hold up from here for this to play out for the bulls later on. Stops on any longs need to be just below here for now.
Any subsequent break above 7825 on rising volume would be a very bullish signal and worth following for 240 points or so
looking for a retest of the 8068 line.

Right now it's back in neutral again in the nearterm but stands a high chance of breaking higher later just so long as 7625 continues to hold up from here.

Has to break below 7610 on Bitmex to flip back to negative again back to the 7460-7450 range.

For now it looks like scalps again.
It's slow hard graft again for a while.
The scalps are 150-200 points though.
We only need 3 or 4 of these per week to make good returns even in difficult conditions.

*For Bitcoin updates in real-time over the Summer please check the link at top-left of main page.


Bitcoin Update 1st August 11.55 Bst 06:55 Est

Bitcoin finally started to fall away again around midnight Bst / 19:00 Est, losing the 7661 support line to make an overnight low at 7465 before rallying back to the same 7661 line this morning in Europe.

Price action is a little strange at the moment though. It's now coming off again from where it should do but there's minor support right here at 7540 which is holding it up. Want to move the stop down to 7575 just in case it flips back up for a while longer. At least this will capture another 80 or so points of profit if it gets hit.
Otherwise short stops can be lowered to 7665 for rought break even if this trade goes wrong from here.
It still hasn't come close to the next short downside target at the 7347-7209 range and volume is fairly light still.
All we can do at this point is manage the stops as best we can and hope for some volume to force it lower to the target.
In meantime we need to watch for a potential double bottom forming at 7465 on low volumes. Some may prefer to keep lowering the stop to within 15 points or so of price due to low volumes, depending on risk profile if margin trading.


In the absence of volumes rising we may get stopped out.
If so that's going to be frustrating but so be it.

On the upside for Bitcoin to escape the downtrend it has to break back above the 7661 line and hold up on the retest .

This price action is a little spooky.
If it won't go down it has to eventually start thinking about going the other way.
We aren't at that point yet but it's moving that way.

This looks to be the 4th wave down and it's not pushing lower so far.
It's finding support off the dynamic that's formed since the weekend - these signs are enough to warrant caution.
Cannot stay gung-ho short from this point.
Price action is saying we have to stay bearish but cautious for now.

2 ago 2018

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Bitcoin Update Bitmex

The low since the last update was 7463, which was 3 points away from the top of the target at 7460-7450. Close but no cigar. We did get that double bottom though and it was worth 147 or so points on a slow slow day. So far today there's not much more we could have done with Bitcoin.
Trading has been lacklustre all day - but despite another test of 7460-7450 the volume was low and there are no sellers at this level at the moment.
As before - the longer it stays above this range the more likely it is to break upwards towards 7788-7824 range.


On the downside we need to see a break below 7450 to follow short again from here, looking for 7347 initially and then, after a little bounce, most likely lower still to 7209.
The next support potential below here lies at 6792.

It's back to neutral/even Stevens in the very near term but still trapped within the downtrend that began a week ago now and it's not finding enoiugh interest so far to break the tiny triangle now forming as price pushes against the upper dynamic.
On the bull side it has at least made a minor double bottom but it's far from convincing, hence the dearth of buyers.

Has to break the dynamic directly above it to follow long again from here - Needs volume to appear right behind the break or it will fail quite quickly and come back to retest the same dynamic it's now trying to break above. This trade will need handling with great care if we see it materialise.
Strive to avoid trading on emotion - follow the signs. Chart not heart with this trade. A challenge that must be met or don't trade it.
There will be another fish on the line at some point tomorrow... ; )



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3 ago 2018

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Bitcoin Updates
Bitmex
After spending another couple of hours trying to break above the upper dynamic resistance line (after the last update last night) Bitcoin fell away around midnight Bst/19.00 Est to make a low at 7286 on Bitmex. Once again this level looks insignificant on all the charts we follow for Bitcoin except the futures (next upload).

Price action since the low has created a small spike above price and a small one below, showing indecision centred around the 7347 line. Yesterday's pattern was suggesting this short would be tricky to trade. So it has proved so far. It's enough to drop the stop to 7351 if still short at this point and trading on margin. It's only worth 100 or so points if hit but it can be used as a stop on the next trade from here.
Otherwise can leave stop above 7465 for 15 or so loss if struck from this point.

Once again the move lower doesn't look finished yet - for it to stay this way it has to stay within the confines of the loosely defined upper dynamic above it and then has to break below the 7347 line again.
It's testing the line as this is finished.
We need to follow the signs carefully from here...if it can hold up around the 7347 line now it's showing near term neutrality yet again.

To escape the downtrend and have a chance of a weekend's respite ahead Bitcoin has to find enoigh buyers to force it above the upper dynamic on rising volume - only then can a long shot be considered with the usual caveat of rising volume required to know the break is good. If it doesn't follow fast behind don't trade hopes or emotion - close out and be ready to fight again with an open mind and little damage to bank.

But until we see that on the chart Bitcoin is still stuck in a downtrend and still vulnerable to further sell offs.
The next support line lies at 7209.
But it's still a little tricky and unless some volume comes in soon it looks more likely to drift around the 7347 line for a while trying to decide which way to break from here. Think that lowering the stop in the circumstances is the best we can do with this short.

A bigger short is still on the table at this point - triggered by a break below 7200 on Bitmex looking for 6792-6670 range.

We follow the chart and not our hearts- again.
Chart-Attack, not heart attack.

3 ago 2018

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Bitcoin Bitmex Update.
There was no volume on the break higher but it was still worth following for 100 -140 points from 7400 as it broke the upper dynamic.
Now it's come back to test the same dynamic from above. Should hold here and gib=ves a chance to get long at low risk because the stop is closeby.

It may not work. But the loss is small if so.
Stops below 7355 - can put an order in at 7375 - loss 20 .

3 ago 2018

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Nice second chance to enter as low as 7360 and the stop at 7355 was not hit but came close.

Would like to hold this for longer into the weekend but will look to bank one third at 7528.
Raising stop to breakeven at 7375.
It's up 60 or so points so far- pretty much as soon as the futures closed.
Some may prefer to close out half now or raise the stop up much higher, maybe to witjhin 10 of price at closest, depending on risk/margins.
If we don't see some more volume appearing damn soon there's no harm in grabbing 60 points or so to use as stop on next trade over the weekend.
Trader's choice - as always.
catch you tomorrow.
Be lucky.