Week in a Glance: Pfizer and the pandemic, Brexit and oil

16 nov 2020

The event of the past week was Pfizer's announcement that their vaccine is 90% effective. Many took this information as a victory in the fight against the pandemic. As a result, Monday became one of the most active trading days of the year, during which there was a massive exodus from safe-haven assets and an equally massive inflow of capital into risky assets.

But then it was reported that CEO Albert Burla sold most of his shares right after the vaccine efficacy news was announced on Monday (with a daily high of around $ 41.99 on Monday, he managed to sell 132,508 shares at $ 41.94 a share). His actions, naturally, raised suspicions that everything is not so clear with the vaccine and Pfizer's prospects for selling it in the amount of 1.3 billion doses (!) in 2021 might be far from reality.

Pandemic statistics contributed to a decrease in optimism in financial markets. The total number of cases in the world has reached 54 million, and the daily increase is now 650K +, of which over 180K is given only by the United States. Such statistics for the United States naturally intensifies conversations about the need for a nationwide lockdown in the United States as the only way to bring the situation under control.

So, it’s too early to relax and buy risky assets. That is why this week we will be buying gold and silver, selling on stock markets, selling oil.

And some words about the oil market. Despite the growth of the asset, associated with expectations that OPEC + in January will not increase production by 2 million b / d, the overall fundamental background remains extremely gloomy. OPEC and IEA monthly reports indicated that the second wave of the pandemic will inevitably hit the demand in the oil market. At the same time, the sharp increase in production in Libya speaks in favor of the fact that oil sales are the only logical trade plan in the current conditions.

Formally, the coming week promises to be rather calm, which, however, may change at any moment. In theory, trade negotiations between the UK and the EU should end this week. Besides the pandemic, lockdowns will remain in focus. The earnings season in the US is almost over, but is still in progress.