GOLD: US CPI Holds the Key to Surpassing the $1,950 Mark

As the United States Dollar (USD) and US Treasury bond yields falter, the price of gold maintains its elevated position around $1,940, reaching a three-week peak. The bullish momentum of XAU/USD eagerly awaits the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which could provide the impetus for further upward movement. With a dovish stance from Federal Reserve policymakers and expectations of easing inflationary pressures, the US Dollar finds itself on the losing end this week. As a consequence of this shift in sentiment, US Treasury bond yields have also experienced significant downward pressure. In this favorable environment, gold, being a non-yielding asset, continues to thrive, surging to its highest level since June 20.

The decline in the USD/JPY pair has additionally contributed to the weakening of the US Dollar, amplifying the upward trajectory of gold prices. Anticipation builds around the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) upcoming policy meeting in July, as the Japanese Yen gains strength, fueled by expectations of potential adjustments to the yield curve control (YCC) policy.

Looking ahead, the release of the US CPI data at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday carries paramount importance for the trajectory of gold prices. Forecasts indicate that the annual headline CPI is expected to rise by 3.1% in June, compared to the previously recorded 4.0%. Similarly, core CPI inflation is anticipated to soften to 5.0% in the reported month. On a monthly basis, US CPI is projected to increase by 0.3% in June, a slight improvement from the 0.1% recorded in May. Meanwhile, core monthly CPI inflation is expected to dip marginally to 0.3% from the prior reading of 0.4%.

The outcome of the US CPI data will likely act as a catalyst, determining whether gold can sustain its climb beyond the significant threshold of $1,950. Market participants eagerly await this vital release, poised to seize new opportunities along the golden path.

Pivot point: 1930.00

Our preferred Scenario

Long positions above 1930.00 with targets at 1942.00 & 1945.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario

Below 1930.00 look for further downside with 1924.00 & 1919.00 as targets.

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Operación cerrada: objetivo alcanzado