GOLD driven by CPI, next eye on PPI data
Actualizado
The release of the US inflation report shows that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates. The US Dollar fell sharply and gold prices reached a 6-week high then corrected slightly in the Asian trading session today Friday (July 12).
CPI data reinforces expectations of a Fed rate cut
• US consumer prices unexpectedly fell in June, with the smallest annual increase in a year, reinforcing the view that disinflation is back on track and prompting the Federal Reserve to take action an important step in cutting interest rates.
• The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% month-over-month in June, the first decline since May 2020 US seasonally adjusted CPI rose 3.0% year-on-year in June, below market expectations of 3.1%, the lowest since June last year.
• Additionally, the seasonally unadjusted core CPI in the US recorded an annual increase of 3.3% in June, below market expectations of 3.4% and the lowest level since April /2021.
• The seasonally adjusted monthly core CPI rate in June was 0.1%, below market expectations of 0.2% and the lowest since August 2021.
CME Group's (CME) Federal Reserve interest rate tracker shows that after the release of US CPI data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 92.6%, significantly higher than Wednesday's 70%.
Since gold does not earn interest, falling interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and increase the investment appeal of the precious metal.
On the other hand, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has attended US Senate and House committee hearings over the past 2 days, and his testimony shows that the Fed is getting closer to a decision to cut interest rate.
Today (Friday), investors will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for June and the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for July.
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD
After reaching and breaking the original price level of 2,400 USD, the target increase noticed by readers in previous publications, gold is also making certain adjustments. And the $2,400 raw price point now becomes the closest support on the daily chart.
The bullish technical structure of gold prices remains unchanged with all supporting factors from the trend price channel, support level at the original price point of 2,400 USD and maintaining price activity above the 21-day moving average (EMA21). In addition, the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is still room for price increases in the near future.
As long as gold remains within the trending price channel, the main technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish, with notable technical points listed below.
Support: 2,400 – 2,390USD
Resistance: 2,424 – 2,449USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2441 - 2439
⚰️SL: 2445
⬆️TP1: 2434
⬆️TP2: 2429
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2379 - 2381
⚰️SL: 2375
⬆️TP1: 2386
⬆️TP2: 2391
CPI data reinforces expectations of a Fed rate cut
• US consumer prices unexpectedly fell in June, with the smallest annual increase in a year, reinforcing the view that disinflation is back on track and prompting the Federal Reserve to take action an important step in cutting interest rates.
• The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% month-over-month in June, the first decline since May 2020 US seasonally adjusted CPI rose 3.0% year-on-year in June, below market expectations of 3.1%, the lowest since June last year.
• Additionally, the seasonally unadjusted core CPI in the US recorded an annual increase of 3.3% in June, below market expectations of 3.4% and the lowest level since April /2021.
• The seasonally adjusted monthly core CPI rate in June was 0.1%, below market expectations of 0.2% and the lowest since August 2021.
CME Group's (CME) Federal Reserve interest rate tracker shows that after the release of US CPI data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 92.6%, significantly higher than Wednesday's 70%.
Since gold does not earn interest, falling interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and increase the investment appeal of the precious metal.
On the other hand, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has attended US Senate and House committee hearings over the past 2 days, and his testimony shows that the Fed is getting closer to a decision to cut interest rate.
Today (Friday), investors will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for June and the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for July.
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD After reaching and breaking the original price level of 2,400 USD, the target increase noticed by readers in previous publications, gold is also making certain adjustments. And the $2,400 raw price point now becomes the closest support on the daily chart.
The bullish technical structure of gold prices remains unchanged with all supporting factors from the trend price channel, support level at the original price point of 2,400 USD and maintaining price activity above the 21-day moving average (EMA21). In addition, the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is still room for price increases in the near future.
As long as gold remains within the trending price channel, the main technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish, with notable technical points listed below.
Support: 2,400 – 2,390USD
Resistance: 2,424 – 2,449USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2441 - 2439
⚰️SL: 2445
⬆️TP1: 2434
⬆️TP2: 2429
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2379 - 2381
⚰️SL: 2375
⬆️TP1: 2386
⬆️TP2: 2391
Nota
The monthly producer price index, a measure of prices received by producers of domestic goods and services, rose 0.2% during the month. Economists were looking for an increase of just 0.1%, while the previous reading had recorded a decline of 0.2% in May.On an annual basis, the index recorded an increase of 2.6% compared to June, and in May it recorded 2.4%, while experts expected a recording of 2.3%.
Nota
Nota
Gold prices fell slightly in early Asian trading on Monday, remaining at record highs but demand for safe-haven assets did not increase following the assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump.Nota
🟡Gold prices decline coinciding with increasing US political uncertaintyGold metal prices fell during the first trading of the week, and for the second session in a row, as a result of the rise in the US dollar along with the weakness of Chinese demand for gold, with global markets awaiting the statements of US Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell later in the day.
Nota
Gold prices rose on Monday (July 15), fluctuating near the highest level in more than a month recorded last week, supported by hopes of lower interest rates from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Investors wait for more comments from Fed officials to evaluate the timing of interest rate cuts.Nota
🟥GOLD HEADS FOR RECORD HIGH CLOSE ON VIEW THAT FED IS POISED TO CUT RATESGold prices advanced Tuesday, on track for a record close as rising expectations of a September interest rate cut bolstered demand for bullion.
Spot gold gained 0.7% to $2,438.83 per ounce. Gold futures advanced 0.6% to $2,443.80. Earlier in the day, futures hit a high of $2,448.2, the best level since May 20 when it traded for as much as $2,454.20.
Nota
🟢TRUMP WARNS THE US FEDERAL RESERVE GOVERNOR AGAINST CUTTING INTEREST RATES BEFORE THE ELECTIONS!Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate for the US presidency, during an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, yesterday evening, Tuesday, warned Federal Reserve Governor Powell against lowering interest rates before the elections.
Nota
🔻The current US President, Joe Biden, is stumbling on his way to the White House for a serious term, with a counter-campaign not only from his rival, Republican candidate Donald Trump, but also from his family in the Democratic Party, as calls for his withdrawal are increasing.Nota
🟢US Federal Reserve Member Goolsbee: The inflation mission is not over yet!The statements of the US Federal Reserve member in Chicago, Austin Goolsby, today, Thursday, addressed the following points:
🟢I feel much better after several months of improvement in the CPI, but the job of inflation is far from over.
🟢It is very clear that inflation has fallen a lot in the past 12 to 18 months, and that is the same rate as inflation has fallen at all times.
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