XAUUSD Economic Showdown: Kamala vs. Trump
Actualizado
Elliott Wave Analysis
In the Elliott Wave Theory, markets move in repetitive cycles or "waves," consisting of five impulse waves and three corrective waves. The current chart shows we are approaching the end of the 5th wave in the current bullish cycle, suggesting that a correction is imminent.
Wave Count and Structure:
The chart shows that we have completed waves I through IV and are in the final leg of wave V.
The final leg of Wave V appears to be nearing its top (as marked by the circled number "5" in red).
Wave V itself is subdivided into smaller waves, and it appears that the minor wave (5) of the larger Wave V is concluding.
Key Resistance Levels:
The invalidation level at 2,779.105 suggests that if the price breaches this level, the current Elliott Wave count is likely incorrect, and further upside would be expected.
Another important level is 2,749.568, which marks the potential end of Wave V and the likely beginning of a correction.
Fibonacci and Price Targets:
The Fibonacci extensions marked on the chart suggest potential price targets for the top of Wave V. The range between 2,749.568 - 2,779.105 indicates a resistance zone where gold might face selling pressure.
Next Steps Based on Elliott Wave:
If the wave count holds, we can expect a corrective move, which will be identified as Wave A, B, C (a three-wave correction).
A retracement to key levels such as 2,604.790 or possibly lower to the 2,500 area could be expected during this correction phase.
Wyckoff Method Integration
The Wyckoff Method, which focuses on market psychology and supply/demand imbalances, is also heavily referenced in the chart.
Phase B of Distribution:
The chart indicates that we are in a Wyckoff Distribution phase, where the market is likely reaching a peak before distributing its supply, resulting in a price decline.
The UT (Upthrust) in Phase B suggests that we might have seen the final push higher, signaling a reversal.
The SOW (Sign of Weakness) and ST (Secondary Test) marked on the chart are early warning signs that distribution is in progress.
Break of Structure (BOS):
The Break of Structure (BOS) noted in several areas suggests that the upward momentum may be waning.
These BOS/MSB (Market Structure Breaks) on both Wave 3 and Wave 5 in the smaller degree waves could indicate an early signal of a bearish reversal.
Support Levels:
Key support levels are outlined, including 2,421.241, which marks a major resistance line that could become a new support if price retraces.
The chart shows that price may return to test these support levels during the corrective phase of the market cycle.
2-Week Outlook:
Given the current market structure and technical setup, the outlook for the next two weeks is as follows:
Short-term Upside Potential: There could still be a small upward push towards the 2,749-2,779 area as the market completes Wave V.
Imminent Correction: Once Wave V completes, expect a reversal or correction, likely targeting the 2,600-2,500 zone. The correction could play out as an ABC pattern in the coming weeks.
Support Levels in Play: During the correction, we expect the 2,604.790 level to act as the first line of defense, followed by deeper support around 2,421.241 if the sell-off gains momentum.
The confluence of Elliott Wave and Wyckoff analysis points towards an exhaustion of the bullish trend, and traders should prepare for potential downside.
Discussion of the Upcoming Interviews (Kamala Harris and Donald Trump) from an Economic Perspective:
Regarding the upcoming live interviews with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, several key economic topics may emerge given the current landscape:
Inflation and Monetary Policy:
Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are likely to face questions about their stance on inflation and interest rate policy. With inflation continuing to challenge the global economy, there will likely be discussions on the Federal Reserve's future actions.
Expect Trump to criticize the Biden administration for "mismanaging" inflation, pointing to his own policies that he claims helped maintain price stability.
Kamala Harris will likely defend the current administration’s fiscal policies and efforts to reduce inflation through supply chain improvements and energy transition initiatives.
Economic Growth and Job Creation:
The state of the U.S. economy, particularly in terms of GDP growth and employment rates, will be key discussion points. Trump's economic platform traditionally emphasizes tax cuts and deregulation, which he argues will stimulate growth.
Harris, on the other hand, is expected to highlight investments in infrastructure and green energy as long-term growth strategies.
Trade and Global Economy:
Trade relations, particularly with China, will be a central theme. Trump has been vocal about his approach to tariffs and reducing dependency on China.
Harris, representing the Biden administration, will likely emphasize a multilateral approach to trade and focus on rebuilding alliances while tackling issues like supply chain resilience.
Federal Budget and Debt:
The growing national debt will be another major point of discussion. Trump is likely to stress his intention to rein in government spending and reduce the debt burden through policies such as entitlement reform.
Harris, meanwhile, will defend the administration’s spending on social safety nets and argue that investments in education and healthcare are necessary to support a growing middle class.
In both interviews, it is expected that the candidates will adopt sharply different economic views, reflecting their broader political platforms. Expect sharp contrasts on fiscal discipline, taxation, and the role of government in driving economic recovery and managing inflation.
In the Elliott Wave Theory, markets move in repetitive cycles or "waves," consisting of five impulse waves and three corrective waves. The current chart shows we are approaching the end of the 5th wave in the current bullish cycle, suggesting that a correction is imminent.
Wave Count and Structure:
The chart shows that we have completed waves I through IV and are in the final leg of wave V.
The final leg of Wave V appears to be nearing its top (as marked by the circled number "5" in red).
Wave V itself is subdivided into smaller waves, and it appears that the minor wave (5) of the larger Wave V is concluding.
Key Resistance Levels:
The invalidation level at 2,779.105 suggests that if the price breaches this level, the current Elliott Wave count is likely incorrect, and further upside would be expected.
Another important level is 2,749.568, which marks the potential end of Wave V and the likely beginning of a correction.
Fibonacci and Price Targets:
The Fibonacci extensions marked on the chart suggest potential price targets for the top of Wave V. The range between 2,749.568 - 2,779.105 indicates a resistance zone where gold might face selling pressure.
Next Steps Based on Elliott Wave:
If the wave count holds, we can expect a corrective move, which will be identified as Wave A, B, C (a three-wave correction).
A retracement to key levels such as 2,604.790 or possibly lower to the 2,500 area could be expected during this correction phase.
Wyckoff Method Integration
The Wyckoff Method, which focuses on market psychology and supply/demand imbalances, is also heavily referenced in the chart.
Phase B of Distribution:
The chart indicates that we are in a Wyckoff Distribution phase, where the market is likely reaching a peak before distributing its supply, resulting in a price decline.
The UT (Upthrust) in Phase B suggests that we might have seen the final push higher, signaling a reversal.
The SOW (Sign of Weakness) and ST (Secondary Test) marked on the chart are early warning signs that distribution is in progress.
Break of Structure (BOS):
The Break of Structure (BOS) noted in several areas suggests that the upward momentum may be waning.
These BOS/MSB (Market Structure Breaks) on both Wave 3 and Wave 5 in the smaller degree waves could indicate an early signal of a bearish reversal.
Support Levels:
Key support levels are outlined, including 2,421.241, which marks a major resistance line that could become a new support if price retraces.
The chart shows that price may return to test these support levels during the corrective phase of the market cycle.
2-Week Outlook:
Given the current market structure and technical setup, the outlook for the next two weeks is as follows:
Short-term Upside Potential: There could still be a small upward push towards the 2,749-2,779 area as the market completes Wave V.
Imminent Correction: Once Wave V completes, expect a reversal or correction, likely targeting the 2,600-2,500 zone. The correction could play out as an ABC pattern in the coming weeks.
Support Levels in Play: During the correction, we expect the 2,604.790 level to act as the first line of defense, followed by deeper support around 2,421.241 if the sell-off gains momentum.
The confluence of Elliott Wave and Wyckoff analysis points towards an exhaustion of the bullish trend, and traders should prepare for potential downside.
Discussion of the Upcoming Interviews (Kamala Harris and Donald Trump) from an Economic Perspective:
Regarding the upcoming live interviews with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, several key economic topics may emerge given the current landscape:
Inflation and Monetary Policy:
Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are likely to face questions about their stance on inflation and interest rate policy. With inflation continuing to challenge the global economy, there will likely be discussions on the Federal Reserve's future actions.
Expect Trump to criticize the Biden administration for "mismanaging" inflation, pointing to his own policies that he claims helped maintain price stability.
Kamala Harris will likely defend the current administration’s fiscal policies and efforts to reduce inflation through supply chain improvements and energy transition initiatives.
Economic Growth and Job Creation:
The state of the U.S. economy, particularly in terms of GDP growth and employment rates, will be key discussion points. Trump's economic platform traditionally emphasizes tax cuts and deregulation, which he argues will stimulate growth.
Harris, on the other hand, is expected to highlight investments in infrastructure and green energy as long-term growth strategies.
Trade and Global Economy:
Trade relations, particularly with China, will be a central theme. Trump has been vocal about his approach to tariffs and reducing dependency on China.
Harris, representing the Biden administration, will likely emphasize a multilateral approach to trade and focus on rebuilding alliances while tackling issues like supply chain resilience.
Federal Budget and Debt:
The growing national debt will be another major point of discussion. Trump is likely to stress his intention to rein in government spending and reduce the debt burden through policies such as entitlement reform.
Harris, meanwhile, will defend the administration’s spending on social safety nets and argue that investments in education and healthcare are necessary to support a growing middle class.
In both interviews, it is expected that the candidates will adopt sharply different economic views, reflecting their broader political platforms. Expect sharp contrasts on fiscal discipline, taxation, and the role of government in driving economic recovery and managing inflation.
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