Gold, LONG TERM OUTLOOK

30 may 2014

Gold long term outlook continues to be bearish. The long term Heiken Ashi 3 month chart still shows no green candle and below the 7ma. The next bull phase and or a short term move up will most likely begin when the RSI moves back above 30 followed by a close above the 7ma. As you can see the long term bull phase began when the RSI broke above 30 in 2001. Currently the RSI is curving up so it’s possible that we could be bottoming around this level. With the 3 month Heiken Ashi setup if the RSI(3) stays below 30 price action is in a strong downtrend, above 70 it’s in strong uptrend. The weekly frame is currently showing a downward move and RSI below support #1.Also note that this latest down move began with a hidden negative divergence with price near the top of the band. Best guess is that price falls to bottom of band and or key support, from there a triple bottom maybe in place. Break of key support could see Gold fall further to about the $1000 level.