Closing my Selling order / #36 Profits row / Target almost met

15 sept 2022

As discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: "My position: As I have been announcing throughout my remarks that #1,678.80 sequence is on the cards, now is the opportunity to pursue the level. I have engaged my piercing Selling order (#1,701.80 entry point), Targeting #1,692.80 first, then #1,678.80 Lower Low's Upper zone in extension."


I have closed my Selling order (#1,701.80 - #1,686.80) on a fine #15 point Profit run, extending my results range to #36 Profits and #6 Stop-loss hits regarding April - September cycle. I will use this chance to congratulate Traders who followed my call and had patience to hold the order, well done!


Gold's general commentary: Gold was slowly but steadily approaching the most important Support line of #Q3, the Daily chart’s psychological mark (#1,700.80 on Xau-Usd Spot prices) where it last time failed to close the session below and got rejected. This pattern continues to be very similar to the August Bullish Megaphone where Gold was again rejected on the Daily chart’s #MA200 and after a pullback to the Daily chart’s #MA50, however #3 sessions later Price-action broke above it to test the Resistance. I was expecting a similar breakout (towards Lower levels of course), especially since both Hourly 4 and Daily chart were pointing to even steeper decline. As expected the Price-action was headed downwards aggressively ahead of a pending Hourly 4 chart’s Dead Cat bounce. I still see many similarities with the August fractal as a break below the Hourly 4 chart’s former Support didn’t marked a Bottom and in a few sessions ahead Gold made a Lower Low’s #50 points below. With that being said, since #1,700.80 mark was invalidated and #1,692.80 didn't provided steady Support, #1,678.80 Lower Low’s can be tested on Intra-day basis.


Technical analysis: As expected the Dead Cat bounce worked perfectly and the Hourly 4 chart’s Descending Channel made a new Higher Low’s that is about to test and break the #1,678.80 - #1,680.80 Support zone on Xau-Usd Spot prices. I will now only operate with breakout Trades only. A session closing below #1,692.80 is a breakout signal towards #1,678.80 Lower Low’s extension first, then #1,652.80 psychological mark in extension. Note that the (#1W) Weekly chart is typically offering great Medium-term Resistance / Support levels and is now pointing to even more losses on Gold on the cards. Last time Price-action was comfortably Trading below #1,678.80 Lower Low’s extension (April #6, #2020) and we haven't Traded below it since, so realize the significance of this level. Even though the Hourly 4 chart’s #1,692.80 is Trading near (was offering Support structure aswell from below), break seems more reasonable as Price-action is isolated inside of Descending Channel (even on bigger charts) and as long as more and more sessions are closed near or under #1,700.80 mark, chances are High that we'll be testing the #1,678.80 Lower Low’s pressure point sooner or later.


Fundamental analysis: Needless to mention, configuration will largely depend on this week's many Macro-Fundamentals and of course, DX, adding parallel Selling pressure on Gold subsequently. In addition, Daily chart remains critically Bearish so if you are looking for direction pointers keep checking the DX firstly (topping it’s Channel) and the Bond Yields (rejected last week on it’s Higher High’s peak which is keeping it Bullish stance since late August). I am confident that #1,678.80 test should be fair Technical estimate.


My position: As I have closed my Selling order with Profits, I will comfortably remain on sidelines and monitor the Price-action from sidelines, satisfied with my current Trading results. If market closes below #1,692.80 Support, I will Sell Gold on spot towards #1,678.80 (level of utmost importance) first, then pursue #1,652.80 psychological barrier in extension.