In recent sessions, the yellow metal continued to drive lower after touching base with a H4 supply zone seen at 1292.5-1289.2. The move, as you can see, completed at a H4 AB=CD 127.2% ext. at 1274.2, which happens to be housed within a H4 demand area at 1271.8-1275.2. Although this zone has already done a fine job of supporting the bulls, both weekly and daily structure show that the bears could remain in control.
Weekly flow shows price trading nicely from two Fibonacci extensions 161.8/127.2% at 1313.7/1285.2 taken from the low 1188.1 (green zone), while daily action has room to stretch down to a support area marked at 1265.2-1252.1 (a weekly support line at 1263.7 is seen housed within this daily area – the next downside target on this scale).
Our suggestions: We do not see a lot to hang our hat on at the moment. Here’s why:
• A long would, of course, place one against potential weekly and daily sellers.
• A short, although supported by higher-timeframe flow, is risky given the current H4 demand and nearby H4 support at 1270.7. Even with a H4 close seen beyond these two areas, price would then be too close to the top edge of the daily support area to consider a sell!
Maybe we’re missing something here, but it seems like we’re trapped at both ends!