I've got a hundred million reasons to walk away (Lady GAGA)

25 abr 2022

On March 7th, I published my very first analysis of Valero and A possible 46% opportunity in less than 6 months..!

After I publish my analysis for VLO on March 7th, 2022, and mentioned an opportunity to buy at the 86-87 level with a 46% gain in less than 6 months:

1- March 8th,2022:

- Bank of America added VLO to the US1 list and adjusted its target price to 135 from 107 for 2022.
(The US 1 list reflects strategic stock recommendations made by the BofA Merrill Lynch US 1 committee.)

-Scotiabank Raises Price Target for Valero Energy to $90 From $83.

2-March 14th,2022:

-JPMorgan Adjusts Valero Energy's Price Target to $101 From $95
-Tudor Pickering Raises Price Target for Valero Energy to $104 From $93

I evaluate the Stock from all the aspects I could, But a childish mistake and market sentiment cost me the lion's share of the profit!

I closed my long position with a 9.5% profit and my Call options with a 35% profit on March 22.

I made that greedy decision to re-enter at lower prices, but VLO moved up another 18.2%.

I re-enter my position today because the same criteria appeared on the chart once again, and that is the historical lowest VLO/GY1!:
(GY1! is Gulf Coast Crack Spread)


the reaction of the market to the earnings is not predictable with a high accuracy rate, but tomorrow earning result remind me off this Lady GAGA lyrics:

I've got a hundred million reasons to walk away
But, baby, I just need one good one to stay
Oh, baby, I'm bleeding, bleeding, ey...
Can't you give me what I'm needing, needing?

I have a lot of reasons to support the Idea that VLO earnings will be recorded High..!
and the only thing that could prevent them is:

VLO financial advisers and future traders fixed the Crack Spread and oil prices carelessly..!(which is very unlikely)

So I spend 2% of my capital on the call options, and possibly I will realize the options in case we see a big bullish gap..!

Best,

Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D

DISCLAIMER

I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.

* I have a long position.

26 abr 2022

Nota

Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) on Tuesday reported first-quarter profit of $905 million.

On a per-share basis, the San Antonio-based company said it had net income of $2.21. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring costs, were $2.31 per share.

The results topped Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of six analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of $1.61 per share.

The oil refiner posted revenue of $38.54 billion in the period, which also topped Street forecasts. Three analysts surveyed by Zacks expected $32.06 billion.

26 abr 2022

Nota

#VLO #USOIL #GASOLINE #GY1! Oil is up, Gasoline price is up, crack spread is up and VLO is up 3% in the premarket!