Oil looking to retest lows

25 sept

The vast majority are talking inflation 24/7, but we very likely could be going into deflation for the next year or 2. China is already suffering from deflation and they are at over capacity and need to dump goods. A slowing China is deflationary for the world. In the US, job losses accelerating, and the number of layoffs companies are announcing is huge. These numbers will eventually show up in the economic data. Add demographics and record consumer debt and I doubt we will see anymore inflation (which was mostly do to energy prices and shortages FYI) for awhile. It will not be until rates drop in the next year and a huge economic recovery package is out in the economy will we see the inflation begin again.

30 sept

Nota

I noticed the years on the chart are off. I am thinking the low in oil will be Q2 in 2025.