8.6 Long-term trend of oil
As the stock market fell last Friday, traders in major markets chose to sell a large number of transactions. Crude oil was of course not immune, causing a rapid drop in prices. Compared with the oil price in July, it fell by $10 and now fluctuates around $73. Everyone is worried about the US economic recession, but at the same time ignores an important information, which is the great geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Once the situation escalates, crude oil will rise sharply again. It is also a buying opportunity now. If you are a long-term investor, then you might as well take a look at the option spread after expiration throughout August. I personally expect it to be between 78 and 80. Of course, this is also a risky pre-evaluation. There are risks in entering the market, so please be cautious.
Nota
Traders, if you like this idea or you have your own opinion on it, please write it in the comments. I will be happy to do so. Please support me by liking and commenting to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share with me your opinion on the possible trend of this chart. As always, we will update you regularly during the week and tell you how we manage active ideas and setups.Nota
Traders, if you like this idea or you have your own opinion on it, please write it in the comments. I will be happy to do so. Please support me by liking and commenting to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share with me your opinion on the possible trend of this chart. As always, we will update you regularly during the week and tell you how we manage active ideas and setups.Nota
Carsten Fritsch, a commodity analyst at Commerzbank, pointed out in a report that if the situation in the Middle East escalates and oil supply is affected, oil prices may rise rapidly. About one-third of seaborne oil exports reach the world market through the Strait of Hormuz, which is a very important waterway. If traffic there is disrupted, oil prices are expected to rise sharply.Nota
As expected, crude oil may continue to rise as tensions in the Middle East increaseNota
Oil prices have reached 79, which is exactly in line with the forecast.
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