USDZAR, the 200 WMA does it again and again. #USDZAR

26 feb 2021

I don't want to spoil the party for the ZAR bulls, but what has popped up in my analysis for years is how sticky the ZAR is to the 200 week moving average (WMA). Look at the blue boxes i have highlighted and it is not difficult to see how often the rand retraces back to this 200 week ma before weakening. This moving average almost feels like a magnet that brings price back but then loses all its force once it gets close enough. Also watch the positive divergence on the RSI which could be another clue. This chart seems to support my technical view on the DXY chart i just posted and i would thus expect the Rand to weaken against the dollar if that view plays out. Watch for a break above both the channel and horizontal level at approximately 15.25. If we get a weekly close above this level, then you we can expect the ZAR to once again be on the back-foot going forward.