USDJPY Market Commentary 12.08.2021

A clean and simple setup forming inside the 110 handle here. Eyeballing a leg lower towards 109.2x with Yields leading.

• This is the 4th attempt from bulls to reclaim the 110 handle and take out 111 stops since July. The LT outlook is Strong Buy as depicted in the chart below, but the ST trend is telling us a very different picture, that we are not quite ready to complete the breakup yet.
  
• Expecting more ping-pong play within the range here, a test of will be more than happy with 109.2x, extensions below are possible but with JPY in structural decline, unlikely in my view.
  
• From a flows perspective, a break would be a weak move, though it involves a sharp threat of 111 then 115. The error is that buyers are over-extended and in the height of summer, it would have been much better doing something like protecting 108 and building a floor, on the other hand, sellers ready to march. 110 should be lost.
  

Operación cerrada: objetivo alcanzado:

109.2x hit!