Kumo Bounce With Oversold Signal

1 nov

Just testing the Kumo Bounce out.

Going for 1R at 0.9%, and 1R trailing stop upon entry at 0.1%.

4 nov

Operación cerrada manualmente

Ok now is 350pm Singapore Time and I just finish my breakfast and lunch.

Earlier today, I closed the trade for a small loss of -0.3R x2 positions.

And over the weekends I have some recurring thoughts about supply and demand of the market and how it affects win rate, risk to reward ratio, losing streaks that keep coming, as well as inability to turn a profit as well as strategy hopping.

The solution is very simple, but I only have the knowledge and not the experience to say what I mentioned is true.

The solution is, If the market consistently offers only 40 pips a day, and your stop loss is set at 40 pips, it's advisable to take that 40 pips at a 1:1 ratio, or slightly less, rather than adhering rigidly to a predetermined take profit (TP) risk-reward ratio.(This paragraph is rewritten by microsoft copilot)

Rigidly thinking that you are following your rules is the reason why you keep seeing profits and then lose it back to the market, and many a times turning a winning trade into a full R loss.

It is like labubu. When the supply was purposely capped, the price was sky high. But the real demand is actually built up by scalpers. And when labubu dropped into the mass market, the price suddenly collapsed because the supply outweighed the demand.

If you stupidly think that, I am going to continue to ask for 40$ when the average labubu fan is getting an authentic labubu for the price of 20$ per unit, and that when you fail to get the price you ask for is ok because you are following your rules, then you are setting yourself up for failure.

Trading shouldn't be rigid, especially when there is any ounce of discretionary decisions made by you everytime you trade, because when the money doesnt come consistently, you start to shift your plans subconsciously, and eventually strategy hop, and keep finding yourself in this type of toxic relationship with trading.

Years will go by and you question yourself why others can make it when they came in later than me?

Don't expect others to tell you their real secret sauces to their success, because either they don't know why it worked out(they call it probabilities), or, they don't have any reason to tell you why.

I have hopped over 20 different strategies over the 8 years of my trading career, and I just revisited this idea, again, and explored it further, to allow my neurons to further build the connections over the weekend.

You do not need to set and forget, especially if you are not trading an automated systems strategy. IF you do that, you are setting yourself up for failure.

Back in 2014 to 2018 when I was playing poker, I learned that we would require a huge sample size to remove the luck aspect of poker. And the number is 100k hands played. 10k 20k hands would also do, however it could be skewed due to luck.

So, if you only manage 100 200 500 5000 trades a year, and you are trading discretionarily while having a set and forget approach, expect your trades to go really wild, because from my experience, you will be losing alot when you were previously in the green, because you want to take that extra pip via automated closing out, or that, you refuse to close that trade when the price is previously green then went against you into the red, and you allow the trade to run itself to the ground, hitting your full 1R loss, and you learn to call it, "Following My Trading Rules".

You have any ounce of discretionary decision making aspect, you gotta follow the market's available demand and supply(Not talking about bs supply and demand zones).

If fishermen's dock at 3am in the morning and sales commence at 310am, you better be there by 310am to bid for the fishes. If you wanna force your rules upon the market by coming at 9am in the morning, thinking you are following your rules and you are better off losing than to adjust or break your rules to fit reality, then you are delusional. By 9am, the good fishes are all gone, the fishermen's market is closing for the day. See you tomorrow at 9am.

So, based on the lower time frame, if the market isn't able to follow the 6ema strongly, then you know the market isn't that strong. And you are better off taking whatever you can and leaving, rather than going for your fixed RRR and when price goes in your favour and then against you, you call it good trading. That is stupidity. Trading is a logic game, not a probabilities game. Especially so if you are a discretionary trader. At least for the common man.

Would you sell Taylor Swift's concert tickets before the concert commences or after Taylor Swift has concluded her last concert for that country?

If your tickets are not sold, and it is 3 hours before the concert begins, would you still go for 2.5k USD per ticket, or sell it off at 500 USD? you bought the ticket at 250 USD. Even if you have to sell it at a loss, you have to. 150 USD? ok. 250 USD is your 1R. Don't raze it down to the ground calling it following your stupid rules.

It's 2.5k USD or 0 dollars baby! Don't. Money kept is money earned.

1623SGT 04112024