Corto

Bearish Count

Actualizado

The previous post is getting too long, so I am starting a new post here.

A solid close below 112.042 (the end of wave iv of (c)) would suggest wave (c) has completed.

Alternatively, break above 113.176 would argue something else has been developing.

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maybe a diagonal is the last piece of the jigsaw

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Since 113.176 has been broken, we have to adopt different wave counts
e.g. triple zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y)-(X)-(Z)

or zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) , where wave (B) is a triangle

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looks bearish

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the short-term rally is very sharp, so another wave up to complete a larger corrective pattern is still possible.

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either way

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If wave {c] equals 1.618 times the length of wave {a}, it could reach 113.416 (close to 61.8% retracement level)
If wave {c} ends beyond the end of wave {a} by 0.618 times the length of wave {a}, it could reach 113.665 (close to 70.7% retracement level)

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not quite sure about the short-term structure, but could be a diagonal wave {c} in the making

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we probably need a sharp fall to valid this diagonal count, an immediate drop below 113.601 would be an ideal initial bearish signal

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trendline breakout

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short-term bearish count

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Sell after breakout

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possible long term count

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I think either red or green counts are more likely to happen

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3 wave rally?

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if a bullish flag appears then breakout buy

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possible count within larger time frame

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drop below 110.162 would eliminate the bullish count in pink

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Either Double Zigzag

OR
Triple Zigzag

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a triangle in the making?

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a flat to complete wave {b} of Y?

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double zigzag for red wave {b}?

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if the current rally is wave (E) of triangle {B}, price should not go beyond the end of wave (C) of {B} at 114.55

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possible short-term count

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possible short-term count

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possible targets for blue wave {c}
- 112.959 where wave {c} = wave {a}
- 114.267 where wave {c} = 1.618 wave {c}

Note
equality in length between wave {a} of W and wave {c} of W

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buy after breakout

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other possible count

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the first chart assumes green w-x-y could complete wave (ii)

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both scenarios in one chart

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an expanded flat for wave (ii)?

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or a bullish count

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the recent decline is very sharp, maybe we are still in the middle of wave X instead of Y

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the recent rally looks corrective, I guess we could use the following count to interpret the structure

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It could be more bearish if wave (E) has ended at 112.4 (25 April 2019)

check previous chart on 12 Feb 2019

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or (1)-(2) = {a}-{b} ( see charts posted on 26 May)

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wsbza

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

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