Potential Short Opportunity for USDDCAD

After a crazy few weeks, this pair is finally slowing down to decide its future move. If it breaks above the triangle and resistance, then we will see a greater move upward. If it breaks below the triangle, horizontal support and 200 EMA, then we can see a greater move down. After the knee jerk reaction by the markets from oil prices, i am slightly on the bearish side for this pair. I believe that a move towards the downside is more likely. In the event i am correct, i will place a short position after the break out and pullback. My TP is at the previous swing low. Depending on the situation, i might place another TP at the close of the gap.