USDCAD 1.1938: 3-1/2 month range breakdown drives lower

USDCAD extended the decline off the 1.2204 lower high (May 1, 2015) below 1.1939 (May 6, 2015 range low) to post new 4 month lows towards 1.1931 (January 20, 2015 low). A clean break below the latter would expose the 1.1801 support (January 15, 2015 higher low) near 61.8% of the 1.1190/1.2834 rise). The oversold condition cautions near term. The 1.2027 resistance area (May 13, 2015 high) should cap bounces. However, a concerted push back above 1.2027 would re-focus 1.2143 (May 11, 2015 high). Above there would stabilize.
Outlook:
Short term: bearish
Long term: neutral