Russell 2000 plays catch-up

28 mar

US stock index futures were a touch weaker this morning. But this follows a particularly strong session yesterday which saw the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 close up 1.2%, 0.9% and 0.5% respectively. But the stand-out performance came from the Russell 2000, the US’s broad-based, domestically-focused mid-cap stock index. It ended the session over 2% higher, suggesting that investors are widening their horizons away from the highly priced tech giants to more reasonably priced corporations. On the one hand, that would indicate that investors are wary of overpaying for stocks at the vanguard of the current rally. But it also suggests they retain their faith in the market by looking for value outside of the mainstream. As the Russell is still around 14% shy of its record level hit back in November 2021, the bulls could argue convincingly that there’s plenty of life left in the bull market. Others may counter that investors are getting a bit desperate, and that it simply demonstrates that the ’fear of missing out’ is driving speculators to buy any old rubbish. As ever, time will tell. But for now, the melt-up continues. Today’s data releases came in mostly in line with expectations, with a small upgrade to Final GDP. But tomorrow sees the most important update with the release of Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. This has been trending lower since September 2022 when it stood at +5.2% year-on-year. Last month it dropped to +2.8%, its lowest level since April 2021. The hope is that it will continue to moderate. But many are concerned that it could tick higher, just as CPI and PPI did earlier this month. If this were to be the case, investors will have to wait until Monday to respond, given tomorrow’s Good Friday market closures.