NASDAQ, expect a top to be built at 18k

5 feb

Hello everyone,
I've been watching NASDAQ closely as I expect to end an elliot wave count around the 18k area.
If the level will be reached soon the chance for a correctional move is high, where we could anticipate in.

To make it short, the psychological level of 18.000 will be very interesting, but there is also the channel trendline above, that should form strong resistance. I usually work with several positions, the cyan tringle area will be used for shorting.

I will keep you updated about further actions.

9 feb

Nota

Close to the selling zone

12 feb

Operación activa

18k target reached and we saw a great initial reaction. Also the daily candle closed very bearish, so I expect more downside within this week.

Please be aware that we can see several ups and downs, so it's always suitable to take profits and sell again higher as long as the top is confirming more.

If you want to know how I trade ATHs please check out my latest idea post from DAX (DE40).

12 feb

Nota

One thing in general for everyone, who's interested.

Most traders are not trading at ATHs at all because of the missing data. If you want to trade for example support and resistance strategies, there is nothing for you to do. My trades are based on the following conditions:

- Elliot Wave Count: I only trade the fifth of a fifth or the fifth of a third wave when shorting.

- Psychological numbers: The risk of correction or consolidation close to psychological numbers (in this case 18k) is way higher. So if you are shorting the risk of trend following is decreased.

- Indicators: I use two self made indicator to observe the sentiment of the market. I start to plan shorting ATH prices, if both are showing for a potential correction.

13 feb

Operación cerrada: objetivo alcanzado

17800 reached easily. Looking for a pullback now to sell again.

13 feb

Operación cerrada: objetivo alcanzado

17600 reached without pullback. Very nice confirmation for the idea.
A pullback is very likely now.

13 feb

Nota

I'm watching the levels 17800 and 17880 for a possible target of a pullback. From there I would sell again. There is a small chance to reach 18000 again.

If you want to try to catch the pullback, the daily low should be a good SL. For the new sells, the ATH should be good.

13 feb

Nota

About fundamentals. CPI came out way better than expected (for the DXY). I don't think we will reach the top again within the next trading days, maybe weeks. So far the idea and the wave count seems to be correct.

We completed the wave five and already got the wave A today. There is no evidence, that a wave A low is in place, so be careful. The best trading opportunity will be the sell of from wave B high, so simply corrective wave C which could bring us closer to the following targets:

17180
17000

14 feb

Nota

The pullback clearly started today and could expand also tomorrow. Hopefully you were able to anticipate in that move. Now it's a but late to go long in my opinion.

I want to say one thing about a pullback wave B. That characteristic of this wave is to scare people to go short. A lot of buyers are anticipating here of two reasons:

- They try to follow the trend again
- They want to anticipate in the pullback, especially after a sharp drop like yesterday

That means the pullback could create a very bullish structure and then start to fall again. Obviously a break above 18k will invalidate our scenario.

15 feb

Operación activa

17800 reached. Congrats for everyone, who traded the pullback. I'm short again now.

15 feb

Nota

The move today was very scary. That's the point I was talking about in my last comment. You never know for sure, if this is a trend following move or a deep wave B pullback. Anyways it's getting interesting tomorrow and the weekly candle close could bring us more information. If the ATH is broken I would expect a move towards the trend line above the rejection area. It's likely that 18k area will be tested again tomorrow.

US data today was not as good as expected, the DXY extended it's correction, but should find support soon. There will be more news tomorrow to watch closely.

16 feb

Operación activa

The important order block at 17942 has been reached and reacted bearish so far. Not it depends to the interpretation of the PPI data will decide about the further movement. Under normal conditions a short entry here could be a trade with a very good risk to reward ratio. Let's see.

16 feb

Nota

Better than expected PPI data, trade idea confirmed.

16 feb

Operación cerrada: objetivo alcanzado

Very good profit for everyone who joined this trade at the orderblock and want to close over the weekend. I count fife waves down on lower timeframes, so we could see a three wave correction now.

16 feb

Nota

The orderblock trade had a 1:3 risk to reward ratio so far. I will soon publish an educational idea about orderblock trading. If you are interested, just follow my channel :)

16 feb

Nota

17624 is a very strong support because of the previous weekly open. This should stop the price from falling today.

17 feb

Nota

Thank you for all the comments and rockets, I appreciate your support!

Looking at the daily candle close we have a very strong rejection level right from the orderblock. Also the weekly candle close is showing for a correctional/ consolidation movement for next week.

My Trend Scalp indicator is showing moving average support between from 17200 to 17400. So this can be used as a target and potential reversal zone. This matches perfectly with the 100% fib trend extension at 17400.

There is one more thing I want to mention. We clearly finished wave B today and are already trading in wave C. It's clearly a corrective structure, so we should not consider a larger downtrend from this point. Buyers will come in at one point to follow the overall long trend again. If you are running in a good position, make sure you get out that money at the beginning of next week. If we see a pullback again, we can try to predict the next move again. In case we see a clear structure, we can also try to trade the range until the next breakout.

20 feb

Operación cerrada: objetivo alcanzado

The price is now very close to the mentioned target 17400.
It's suitable to take profits at this stage or set the stop loss to break even to secure your trade.

20 feb

Nota

Finally 17400 reached by perfection. From this point we don't have a clear structure to trade. It's possible to reach also lower targets like 17200 and 17000 if you want to trail with open positions. I would not recommend to open new positions at this point, because the buyers are already coming in again.

23 feb

Nota

It was a good decision to take the profits and not to jump in again. One big point in trading corrections is, that you can loose all your profits with the next trend move, if you don't quit in time. From this point there are only two options left. We could see a correction from 18000 again, or we see new ATH prices next week.
S&P and Dow already made new ATHs yesterday, so it's better to stay away now.

The next important area to watch is 17490 (1,618 fib) to 18660 (trendline resistance). I think I will post a new idea, if we get there.

29 feb

Nota

As I mentioned in the last comment a small correction was created again from 18k, but with today's close it seems to be that we are over it and should reach 18600 area as next target.

2 mar

Nota

The bullish move is confirmed. It will be very interesting to see the price reaction to the green trend line, where I would like to sell again.

6 mar

Nota

The price again reacted to the cyan area and got below 18000. But at this stage it's not clear if a top is in place and I would not rule out, that we see one more high around 18600. Maybe the weekly candle close will give us more information.

12 mar

Nota

The price is clearly holding 18000 again, which is a sign of another ATH to come. This is also in line with the other indices and could be the last wave of buyers.

Still looking for 18600 as a target, but also 19000 could be a possible reversal level.

14 mar

Nota

Price is forming a triangle pattern on the 4H chart. If broken to the upside the price should reach 18600, If it breaks down, a big correction might start below 18000.

18 mar

Nota

The triangle pattern was broken to the downside and the price closed below 18k again. There is a possibility, that a top is in place now, but I'm not sure. Anyway the reversal zone worked out very nicely so far.

21 mar

Nota

The break down of 18k was a fake move again to get rid of sellers on that point. I'm now watching again for the 18600-19000 target to sell from.