SP500 SPX TVIX Rate Hike Thoughts
Actualizado
TVIX Daily Chart
SO I decided to start off with the TVIX chart. I measured the price movement of TVIX during the last rate hike which equaled out to approx. 150% which I measured on this chart from a starting price of $10. Then I measured the flash crash that occurred before that which equaled 250% which I posted. Some interesting things (maybe wishful thinking). The Fed still raised rates a quarter percent even after that flash crash. The difference this coming week is that we are in rocket ship mode in the stock market. My hope is that the Fed says to itself, here is our chance to do a half point rate hike. That would be a bit of a surprise for the markets and then maybe just maybe we can reach the 200DMA for the TVIX chart which as you can see would also be near that 250% move.
The other thing I posted on this chart is a yellow circle that says "Approx target for the weekly BBand head poke". I will post the weekly for TVIX after this and show you the two head pokes above the BBands for both the flash crash and last years rate hike. SO I thought that is significant enough to through that on this daily chart of where I think that head poke range would be is there happened to be any consistency in that regard.
And no, I do not think we can possibly reach the 50MA for the weekly. Just a dream.
SO I decided to start off with the TVIX chart. I measured the price movement of TVIX during the last rate hike which equaled out to approx. 150% which I measured on this chart from a starting price of $10. Then I measured the flash crash that occurred before that which equaled 250% which I posted. Some interesting things (maybe wishful thinking). The Fed still raised rates a quarter percent even after that flash crash. The difference this coming week is that we are in rocket ship mode in the stock market. My hope is that the Fed says to itself, here is our chance to do a half point rate hike. That would be a bit of a surprise for the markets and then maybe just maybe we can reach the 200DMA for the TVIX chart which as you can see would also be near that 250% move.
The other thing I posted on this chart is a yellow circle that says "Approx target for the weekly BBand head poke". I will post the weekly for TVIX after this and show you the two head pokes above the BBands for both the flash crash and last years rate hike. SO I thought that is significant enough to through that on this daily chart of where I think that head poke range would be is there happened to be any consistency in that regard.
And no, I do not think we can possibly reach the 50MA for the weekly. Just a dream.
Nota
Nota
Can we reach the 61% FIB retracement and even hit that real long term trend line, I think so.
Nota
Here is the SP500 chart with the yellow ovals showing approximate OI price targets. I am wondering if this may be a more realistic path as we may only be due for a DCL and not an ICL. The ICL looks due in June. So for Tvix we may only get to $18.30 range. Nota
Also above note that the 200 DMA (yellow line) is right in that yellow oval range.Nota
TVIX Chart again 
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