Sometimes I just draw lines and throw stuff at the wall to see if it sticks. So I had some fun with log graphs on BTC and Market Cap excluding BTC/ETH, AKA Alts. The following chart is the alt market cap. The yellow vertical lines are halving dates or expected halving dates. (April 16,2024 per time of writing). The blue lines are the approximate market bottoms. The purple lines are support trend lines that follow each bull rush.
We witnessed a double bottom after the FUD of the SEC declared war on alts. #FireGensler trending near you. This number was conveniently at approximately 300B. Which is a near 10x factor from the 30B alt market bottom from previous bullrush. This double bottom was similar to that of the past crypto winter around the black swan covid event. One could say that the SEC declaring war on the two largest crypto exchanges in the world could trigger a small "black swan".
Finally I created a downtrend triangle that signified the market resistance throughout crypto winter. In the previous cycle as the market cap begun to break resistance, FUD was there to make sure it double bottomed. The SEC fud created a double bottom that now will signify the start of alt season. The purple lines point to a potential 10T market cap top for alts and a market bottom of 3T during crypto winter.
At the time of writing Gary Gensler was rumored to be resigning due to an internal investigation. Fidelity, Ark, 21Shares, Blackrock, Bitwise, Invesco, WisdomTree, Valkyrie, VanEck, and Citadel are either creating their own exchange or have filed for a bitcoin spot ETF, with most selecting Coinbase as their exchange for policing. If the cases against coinbase, and alts as securities are dropped and if large scale financial institutions continue their purchasing of bitcoin it is not unfathomable that we will see large sums of money thrown into the alt market cap.
Buy, hold, and enjoy the ride.
Disclaimer*: This is not financial advice and the writer owns alt coins such as SOL, ANKR, SHIB, and AUDIO at the time of writing.
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