Time to buy the dip

25 sept 2021

Falling wedge reversal pattern.
Still not very experienced with Elliott Wave Theory, but I do believe there is a crystal clear 5-3-5 ABC pattern close to completing.
Price is situated on very strong support spanning the past year and a half.
MACD attempting to cross bull.


RSI on weekly has broken slightly below 40 RSI which was historically very strong resistance.

With earnings right around the corner, keep an eye on this and ACB.

30 sept 2021

Nota

"Bill To Federally Legalize Marijuana Approved By Key House Committee"

marijuanamoment.net/watch-live-key-house-committee-to-vote-on-federal-marijuana-legalization-bill/

Hmmm.

4 oct 2021

Nota

RSI says someone is accumulating.


1D


4H


2H


15M

The 15m is especially telling. There seems to be a very clear and concise trend line support + resistance flip on this time frame.
Currently, 40 RSI seems to be the only major resistance. Granted this is a really low time frame, but it is in my opinion giving early signals of price reversal.

7 oct 2021

Nota

Earnings pre-market tomorrow.

TLRY as we speak is up 3.43% to $11.16 tomorrow.
I've seen this before but maybe this time is different™?

9 oct 2021

Nota

At this point I am beginning to wonder if I'm just outright completely wrong on this idea. My main basis for it in the first place was the wedge, which I believe I may have drawn the support of incorrectly: see below. Secondly, weekly RSI has now broken decisively below 40. Third, what should have been major price support at $11.60 cleanly broke. To note, my third point is actually very bullish in my opinion.

It seems as though price has already broken well below the (What should now be correctly drawn below) wedge and now into the gap territory. This could, however, be a what I *think* is known as an 'ending diagonal throw-over' of the corrective wave C in Elliott Wave. Essentially, it means it's a fake break of support while simultaneously completing the entire correction. The buy volume on the ER Thursday potentially supports this theory.

My main concern here overall is the legalization circumstances. It appears as though the U.S. is strongly lagging behind in that effort while European countries seem to be pushing for it. Though Elliott Wave is more of a speculation guide on where reversals may occur, EWT shows that sentiment/news is still strongly bearish right before and immediately after the end of a correction or the beginning of a bullish impulse wave. I've noticed some upticks in conversation regarding TLRY recently on social media, but the sentiment is still strongly bearish. The main chatter I've noticed though is something I've seen time and again, which supports my theory that the correction is potentially either over completely or very close to it.

The gap is where I initially thought price would go myself in the event the wedge was wrong. As the screenshot shows, the wedge broke to the downside and is now cents away from partial fill. If TLRY truly is/was strongly bearish yet, I would think there would be a strong impulse to the downside on volume after the second rejection to get back above support. That doesn't seem to be happening here, at least yet.


Weekly RSI *seems* to want to enter oversold territory, but something tells me even if it does it won't close there. Price seems to be consolidating after breaking wedge support. On the weekly, this is also very strong secondary price support. I've labeled what I believe to be the 2 strongest price support zones, and currently TLRY is 11 cents below the secondary support of the first zone. I'd be surprised to not see a bounce here. If price breaks here regardless of volume, the next zone in my opinion begins at $9.20.


Another few things to note are the bi-monthly and quarterly candle closes. The quarterly candle opened at the beginning of this month, while the bi-monthly still has 3 weeks to go. Considering those facts, I am thinking there may be a lot of sideways action to shake people out until November where markup would begin if this idea is correct.

3M:


2M:


The 21 monthly MA held as support for 7 months with last month breaking and closing below it. Although most would consider this bearish, I consider this very bullish:


Regardless of where price goes from here on out, I personally believe anything below the support of $11.60 is a strong buy. Especially if we were to see a decent move to the downside. If we see price consolidating as it is now for the next few weeks, or even a move upwards, I believe the correction is finished and TLRY will begin markup before the new year.

In conclusion, I do not think there will be a full gap fill as there are a lot of people who would be ecstatic at that idea. I personally see TLRY having either finished the correction and moving up/going sideways from here, or maybe a very partial fill and then markup from there. I'm an idiot though so I gas whale c.

9 oct 2021

Nota

Personally, I think next week will be very telling of TLRY's direction.

19 oct 2021

Nota

Pop goes the weasel.


There is a very similar fractal pattern that played out before, a large pop on volume followed by consolidation lower. Will that happen again or is TLRY's correction in fact actually finished?

20 oct 2021

Nota

Good volume so far the past few days - it looks like dips are being aggressively bought so far. Only thing that to me shows bearish potential so far is the fact that prior support at $11.60 seems to be potentially flipping to resistance. It does appear that a bull flag is potentially in the process of forming just below it though.

On lower time frames, the longer term support line is so far holding:


Depending on how you draw the resistance trend line of the wedge, it seems as though TLRY is also holding support above it on the daily. The 21 DMA was also tested and rejected from breaking, as was former price support highlighted by the box. Bullish signs so far:

2 nov 2021

Nota

Bounced very nicely off the daily 40 RSI.
Daily showing what (to me) seems like a very nice inverted HS.

Some sort of news incumming?

2 nov 2021

Nota

oh, AND a double bottom.

28 dic 2021

Nota

TLRY update. Daily has 3 simultaneous indications that a bounce may be coming again:


Long term trend line:


Gann fan:


Bull divs + trend line in RSI:


Earnings on 1/11.

Just for fun I bought a few $11.5 call contracts expiring 1/21, considering that is where the blue 100 DMA is currently sitting. If the bullish divergence plays out here I do expect the possibility of a sizable bounce to at least $10.

The weekly RSI is admittedly concerning. It seems to want to dip into oversold which would cause a strong hidden bullish divergence. Though, the RSI is as of this moment sitting on a major support on this time frame:




If TLRY doesn't bounce here, then I would say between $5 and $6 would be the next crucial support.
Boy the original idea was quite wrong, wasn't it? l0l

28 dic 2021

Nota

28 dic 2021

Nota

29 dic 2021

Nota

Both TLRY and ACB in my opinion are showing reversal signals. Especially ACB considering price is currently re-testing a broken diagonal resistance. Price has also been testing around the $5.30 support zone. The $5.30 area was a very very strong pivot zone in the early days of this stock. Price also made a *very* distinct and clear inverted head and shoulders pattern as well, with the left shoulder having had a massive reaction to this area. The telltale sign that this is a legit inverted head and shoulders pattern is the volume in the head:


The reason I am posting about ACB on this TLRY idea is simply because they're both in the same sector. I've noticed a few times that when ACB starts to look like it is about to reverse, TLRY frontruns it. TLRY will suddenly spike, then a day or two after ACB will follow suit but with more vigor.

When the weed sector 'ignites', it will do so with some serious, serious power. The prices we are seeing right now in TLRY and ACB especially will likely not ever be seen again.

30 dic 2021

Nota

Not bad ...

6 ene 2022

Nota

3rd attempt at oversold on the daily RSI...


Weekly is about to hit oversold as well.

Hmm..

10 ene 2022

Nota

In b4 this is the real reversal for TLRY
~46% down from where I posted this idea, so thankfully I didn't end up buying any stock or anything at the time. Today was Earnings though and TLRY didn't do too bad. Plus a +13.55% day. Not bad.