SPY to (Unsuccessfully) Challenge Rising Wedge

19 may 2016

SPY has been coiling since its recent swing high on April 20th and has been forming a subtle rising wedge pattern (red trend lines) due to relatively weak challenges of resistance over the last two weeks. I am VERY short term bullish based almost entirely on the pattern that formed at the end of the day and think SPY will bump up against the top of the wedge toward the end of the week or beginning of next week before falling once again. SPY may continue to coil within the wedge range before breaking down and falling/remaining below $204. For the record, I am still very bearish in the mid to long term and will re-evalue once SPY reaches the upper boundary. If it does manage to break out of the wedge, we may see a challenge of the recent $210 high, but I don't think we'll see a sustained close over the teal line.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

• Candlestick: Spinning Top (Bullish spinning top that formed at the bottom of a down swing and closed positive.)
  
• Volume: Positive, strong and rising (Bullish)
  
• Stochastic: Nearing a crossover, fast to overtake slow near 30 (Bullish)
  

Let me know what you think! Thanks for reading and Happy Trading!