SPY: Week of April 22

22 abr

Hey everyone,
Wasn't going to post actually, despite promising haha.
The chart is very unclear, there are no HA indications of direction and I am not a strong believer in trendlines (Which is why I completely ignored the major trendline in my last week idea when i said SPY was going to 504, had I cared about it, I would have been bullish, so you see the problems with these pesky trendlines).

So this idea is 100% based on my little computer models.

SO here is what it says:

Going into Monday, it's expecting some pronounced bullishness (I would guess, not the model but me myself, that it's simply a DCB).
Retracement of 497 is almost a given.
There is a strong favouring of a rangey preference on the week with an over-arching bearish bias.
This means, expect no major move until catalysts.
What are the catalysts? A ton of mag 7 earnings coming up.

490 is PL2 on the 3 month.
Mean reversion since SPY's nassence is being placed at 480 using quadratic regression. So this is an area I would watch very very closely if we can get to.

Don't expect as profound of moves as last week because the range being predicted is extremely narrow. Unless we get some massive disappointments in earnings or some other catastrophic thing happens, its just not likely that we see further extreme downside this week (at least, according to the projections).

Now for my opinion:
480 is a great mean. PL3 or the bottom of the 3 month range is below 480. If we fall out of the three month range (meaning we fall below around 477) this would be signs of an impending bearish market.
However, if we manage to stay within the range and bounce anywhere between 480 to 490, bull market back on and we are making a move to 532.


Those are my thoughts, safe trades everyone!

22 abr

Nota

Pretty good day,
The PA is tricky but when there is a lot of conviction in the probability assessments I tend to just buy and hold and wait till it runs, which was very much the setup today. BUy on the dips and wait for the run.

Will take a look at the data for tomorrow and update later.

23 abr

Nota

So probs tomorrow are uh... they're bad.
Lots of bearishness showing up.
Especailly on TSLA. The most bearish data I have seen in a while. And with earnings being released tomorrow evening its just a wild card.
Tech is particularly bearish, SPY/SPX is more rangey bearish.
The expectation for SPY is a bit of a gap up or rise in premarket and then fail.
However, with tech being so bearish, not sure if it drags on SPY.

Chart is still pretty bad with no clear directional setups. However, I do see a bearish setup on the NVDA hourly, but that's about it. Everything else is really not clear.

Moral of the story, computer thinks tomorrow tech is going to sell and SPY is going to be choppy with bearish bias.

I think NVDA will sell to and below 779 based on the chart:


Be careful everyone and safe trades!

23 abr

Nota

Oh god,
I missed a very important fact.

While SPY, NQ and ES have taken out their high probs, QQQ just missed it today, it is at 421.87 ish.

If tech dips then its most likely a buy.

A breakdown of individual assessments for tomorrow are:
TSLA: Bearish
SPX/SPY: Neutral
NDX: Bearish
ES: Bearish (this is including overnight session),
NVDA: Bullish

These are generally days I avoid with the messy all over sentiments, but the QQQ high prob makes sense with the over-arching range thesis the probs said on the week.

If we gap down, I will likely be long.
IF we gap up, I will be short.
If we open relatively flat, I will be looking for SPY to hold 498 and QQQ to hold 417, with that intact I would be long biased.

Nightmares.

23 abr

Nota

Best setup I can see is longing NVDA, initial TP being around 810.

SPY remains unclear,
QQQ likely will have some bearish come in off open (not to say it won't take off mid day, but at least initially it looks like it could see from the setup).
TSLA I am not 100% sure about.

23 abr

Nota

Hmmm, a little unexpected but not totally.
Given the extreme sentiment shift I would say that likely we shift back to a bullish bias, though tech is still not really giving me readings I would like to see.

Outlook for tomorrow is optimistic for the S&P but neutral to bearish on everything else still.

Looking at volume analytics, a lot of buyers stepped in today on SPY, we went from 2.88 sellers to buyers to 1.8 sellers to buyers in 1 day. That's a really dramatic change.

I am cautiously optimistic. At the end of the day, like I said before, I just took this as pullback. With the high prob chilling up at 532, it was only a matter of time before this reversed. I would like to have seen it mean revert first, but the sentiment seems to be still pretty bullish.

Tomorrow will tell. IF we collapse back down and see bearishness prevail, then yeah we will likely mean revert. Otherwise its just back up from here.

Tomorrow is a sidelines day imo. Should give us the answers we need to know.

Safe trades!

23 abr

Nota

And as usual I spoke too soon.
Finally a clear setup on SPY only in the opposite direction that I just advanced:


Pullback target on the Heikin Ashi setup is 497. *sigh*
We need to see a confirmation candle form next.
I will update the idea into tomorrow to let you know if we get it.

24 abr

Nota

Its repainting the setup.
Bearish as of now.

24 abr

Nota

Over the next 2 hours unless this breaks over 507.37, I would consider this bearish.

25 abr

Nota

So was indeed bearish, great!
So let's see what happens tomorrow.
I suspect either whipsaw or parabolic downside.
Which will it be?
Projections say parabolic downside on tech. Probs have been really harsh on tech this week but uh, seeing it now with META earnings...

25 abr

Nota

Surprised, we got the Heikin Ashi target of 497 today. But we immediately bounced there.

This week has been an absolute trainwreck. The probs have been really difficult to interpret. Today (prob wise) SPY was uber bearish, SPX uber bullish. In hindsight it makes sense with SPY snagging the HA target of 497 premarket and then intraday being bullish (SPX does not have a premarket to throw off probs, but SPY does).

Looking at all of this week, I can see the rangey behaviour that was predicted. However, it was rangey bullish and I was expecting rangey bearish based on the assessment. Just a total disaster.

I am green on the week and looking back at this chart I am not sure how with how all over the place the market has been this week. Today my trade was just longing NVDA pretty much off open as there was a bullish setup and the SPX assessment (based on 16 cases) was fairly bullish, SPY was bearish but it snagged that bearish 497 premarket and I didn't really expect it to go much lower when the over-arching bias was rangey.

Here is how things are looking from a technical perspective:



It does appear bullish, but technically still downtrending and in fact, we have carved a secondary lower range with the recent moves. This puts a mean for the current trend at around 504 (just eyeballing it here) if we were to apply a linreg channel.

I haven't ran projections for tomorrow, tomorrow is a day I would really give attention to what the numbers say. In the immediate term we have broken above this little downtrend mean and it looks like we could be heading back up to 515.

But let's just cut the B.S. and talk numbers for a quick sec.
Here's the thing. 3 month model on SPY puts a 96% target at 532.
That means, by end of June, there is a 96% chance we will have snagged 532 between April and end of June (Q2 for you finance people). This is why I remain mostly bullish on stuff despite my permabear disposition.

So. If you are long term focused, hunker down and build.
If you are extra cautious like me, wait for a break over 515. But then you are very, very late. Because 532 is only some points from a break and hold of 515.

My approach going into EOW and next week is to just build long. Market clearly is bullish, else we would have tanked like it was 2022. We didn't. I don't day trade SPY anymore because it slow, and trainwrecky but I do still swing it. I am semi long on it with UPRO. Going to add when possible. Targetting the 532.

At the end of the day, lots of games and BS which is the norm for any market. But its really not showing me bearishness and indeed is using this most recent bearishness to trap both bulls and bears.

Stay the course, look ahead and safe trades!

25 abr

Nota

I meant to say tomorrow is a day I WOULD NOT give attention to what the numbers say. This week has been all rangey games.

26 abr

Nota

We are heading straight back to 500 next week my little love muffins:



So buckle up!

Have a great weekend!