Standing On the Precipice - UPDATE

5 ene 2016

Wow did that happen fast! I had assumed SPY would take a moderately aggressive slide from last Thursday's close, but it looks like China and the Shanghai Composite (XGYO) really shoved it over the edge. With the large gap down at the open and sellers controlling the market for most of the morning, it looked like SPY was doomed to close under $200.00. However, buyers regained momentum later in the afternoon and pushed it up above $201.00 by the close indicating that some of the shock from the Asian market turmoil had subsided. With that in mind, I am updating my post from Sunday and forecasting a small upward bounce towards the $202.50 range by Tuesday or Wednesday to relieve some of the downward pressure. It may continue to fill the gap left in Monday's wake, but I believe it will turn back around and head for $200.00 by the end of the week. I'm still bearish overall and I don't think the $200.00 level will be met with much resistance once SPY turns back around. We shall see!

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

• Candle: Green Hammer (Bullish when seen during a down trend)
  Volume: Solid Buying Action (Neutral-Only turned green late in the afternoon)
  Stochastic (Slow): %D hovering around 25, %K descending, but still greater than %D (Bearish-Sellers will still have control of the market for at least a while longer)
  MACD: Histogram at 0 moving into negative territory, MACD touching (Very Bearish)
  Overall Trend: Downward-20 day EMA (Blue Line) nearing a crossover of 200 day EMA (Blue Circles) (Very Bearish)
  

Agree? Disagree? Any feedback is greatly appreciated! Thanks, and Happy Trading!