Possible outcome...

23 mar 2020

It may be reasonable to consider that if in a recession we will see near 50% market correction. Looking at the chart we can see a possible outlook based on Elliott wave pattern starting in 2008 and a good correlation to the bottom of a megaphone pattern as indicated on the cart. We can expect that the bottom of a recession will not happen all at once regardless of how fast this selloff has been. Of course, calling a bottom is never a good idea, however, we should look at past performance as a guide remembering that every recession is unique. Some of you may remember that I was looking for a correction at the top of the megaphone back in October but instead the market when parabolic. This should have been a big clue that the market was becoming overheated and was to come down. I believe much of the delay had to do with the Fed propping up the market much faster than in the past. Additionally, I do not believe that the virus was the problem but it was the catalyst for this move and for the fast pass that the market has come down.