SPY- Distribution Or Accumulation?
Actualizado
I just posted a smaller timeframe highlighting the bearish Gartley that we have on the small timeframes at this critical level. We broke through the top of the ascending channel- which is a bearish pattern and they typically break down not up and out. We are flirting with this line on the small time frames and this is why I wanted to get the Gartley pattern out to people to see. The fact that we broke this area, but are not doing so impulsively is concerning to me. Also the lack of volume on this breakout and at large. Over the past few weeks, volume has been on the decline and this signals that the people buying are not doing so out of conviction.
My trade Idea is simply-- IF we get back within this ascending channel then it would be bad for the bulls. Getting back within this channel and breaking through my short term support line colored in yellow, would be even worse for the bulls. You could take trades off of either one. Price could continue a little higher into horizontal resistance, or it could fade from here back into the ascending channel and then start massive selling. Not sure which way It will go Up first then down or down from here and more down. But I can definitely say --- that this thing is RUNNING out of Steam.
Outlined on the chart are the different reasons I remain bearish on SPY. Even the bulls must agree that a retracement is needed whether we are in a bull market or bear market, but the million dollar question remains... which market cycle are we in.......
We have some horizontals marked, including the all-time high (ATH) horizontal. I prefer the horizontal that is near us now, it is not as significant as the all-time high or the January top, but similar to a head and shoulders pattern; I would expect distribution to kick in not allowing it to reach that ATH level. It could get close to ATH, with a blow-off top to put the nail in the coffin complete with a large spike in Volume, anything goes up here. But once this thing starts to go down, it could do a large impulse at first and only the tenacious will be ready for that.
Note- Attached is the Gartley in a smaller TF's chart.
Stay Safe, Stay Snappy.
My trade Idea is simply-- IF we get back within this ascending channel then it would be bad for the bulls. Getting back within this channel and breaking through my short term support line colored in yellow, would be even worse for the bulls. You could take trades off of either one. Price could continue a little higher into horizontal resistance, or it could fade from here back into the ascending channel and then start massive selling. Not sure which way It will go Up first then down or down from here and more down. But I can definitely say --- that this thing is RUNNING out of Steam.
Outlined on the chart are the different reasons I remain bearish on SPY. Even the bulls must agree that a retracement is needed whether we are in a bull market or bear market, but the million dollar question remains... which market cycle are we in.......
We have some horizontals marked, including the all-time high (ATH) horizontal. I prefer the horizontal that is near us now, it is not as significant as the all-time high or the January top, but similar to a head and shoulders pattern; I would expect distribution to kick in not allowing it to reach that ATH level. It could get close to ATH, with a blow-off top to put the nail in the coffin complete with a large spike in Volume, anything goes up here. But once this thing starts to go down, it could do a large impulse at first and only the tenacious will be ready for that.
Note- Attached is the Gartley in a smaller TF's chart.
Stay Safe, Stay Snappy.
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Also- All Stochastics are overbought. 15, 30, 45, 1, 2, 3, 4, Daily, and Weekly. Weekly Stochs--- One day I am going to experiment and have an account only for trading the weekly stochs. They're interesting.Nota
Very Critical Level Here, now. We have very low volume and we see that price only surged up due to illiquid after-hours trading, like usual. We are now testing the resistance of this ascending wedge, our higher TF' stochastics are overbought, I think the down move is imminent. Stay safe...stay snappy
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BTW expect volatility as FOMC minutes are released at 2 today
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