Cause that's what it was like the entire day. Besides the last hour.
Literally nothing happened today technically, until that last hour. Also, we're really learning the importance of the this historical top trendline and this $312 area ($312.10 to be exact). We're consolidating. Usually i'd say that we're coiled like a spring ready to make an explosive move. But it's more likened to coiled like a ball of yarn. There was on 5 min candle today that had like 170k volume, out of 900k 100 period MA. The books also looked thin considering these low volume moves were printing outsized moves on the chart. AKA no participation. Today was just a bunch of day traders who had the playground to themselves it looked like. BUT we're pinned, or at least were, in between this $315 and $312 area. This will be a horrible explanation, but sometimes when that happens it can be attributed to gamma neutrality with the MM's. Meaning there's roughly an equal amount of calls and puts at equal strikes throughout their balance sheets. Meaning whenever the price starts moving against one side they buy shares to put the price back in it's place where they're losing the least amount of money. It's generally hard to break without some sort of catalyst and shows the market itself is undecided on where to go. We're equalized. We did have some weak *** stop hunt today but as soon as that fun was over we just rolled over. Any pops got faded, any dips got retraced.
We still have the bullflag in play on the hourly/intraday charts but we actually did close UNDER $312.10 which the bulls fought like hell for, but again, they look tired. Exhausted. You can see it on the chart. That's technically significant in my opinion at least. Other than that there wasn't much happening today. My two scenarios are still in play. Either bull flag with a target of the $319 gap fill and measured target of $329. Or we're seeing buyers exhaustion and we're going down to revisit $300.
5m with notes
1h showing the anemic sad fake pump and rejection. Still within the channel though
Close up of the daily with indicators - note we still have a bearish MACD and also note the confluence of EMA, MA, and trend line support back down towards $300. Like jumping into a net
I still have no idea what this is. ES hourly
4H does look bullflaggy though. .236 fib is acting as resistance
15m IWM looking like a less noisy flag. One of the reasons i like trading it. already filled the gap as well
I mean..
Different view on the daily though
Two scenarios for VIX. Rounded bottom of bear flag. Tomorrow will tell
DJI looking similar to IWM but has not filled the gap yet
BUT - looking like a rejection from the 200 MA
NDX trying to tread water. Looks artificial
But then you look at XLF... leading to the downside
DJT looking like it wants to follow suit
Silver with a textbook trend like break retest
Gold generally undecided, but did get retraced pretty good today
Looks like, to me, a bullflag on the 10 yr as well
Markets giving mixed signals again today with painfully low volume until we finally got some movement in the last hour. Technically SPY looks like it could be flagging for a move higher, but also closed below key support today with half of my leading indicators pointing down, the other possibly pointing up. We have jobs numbers again tomorrow morning. Could be seized on to add some volume to the market and take us somewhere.
Hope you had a good day trading! Keep your heads on a swivel.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA. You are responsible for your own trades.
Literally nothing happened today technically, until that last hour. Also, we're really learning the importance of the this historical top trendline and this $312 area ($312.10 to be exact). We're consolidating. Usually i'd say that we're coiled like a spring ready to make an explosive move. But it's more likened to coiled like a ball of yarn. There was on 5 min candle today that had like 170k volume, out of 900k 100 period MA. The books also looked thin considering these low volume moves were printing outsized moves on the chart. AKA no participation. Today was just a bunch of day traders who had the playground to themselves it looked like. BUT we're pinned, or at least were, in between this $315 and $312 area. This will be a horrible explanation, but sometimes when that happens it can be attributed to gamma neutrality with the MM's. Meaning there's roughly an equal amount of calls and puts at equal strikes throughout their balance sheets. Meaning whenever the price starts moving against one side they buy shares to put the price back in it's place where they're losing the least amount of money. It's generally hard to break without some sort of catalyst and shows the market itself is undecided on where to go. We're equalized. We did have some weak *** stop hunt today but as soon as that fun was over we just rolled over. Any pops got faded, any dips got retraced.
We still have the bullflag in play on the hourly/intraday charts but we actually did close UNDER $312.10 which the bulls fought like hell for, but again, they look tired. Exhausted. You can see it on the chart. That's technically significant in my opinion at least. Other than that there wasn't much happening today. My two scenarios are still in play. Either bull flag with a target of the $319 gap fill and measured target of $329. Or we're seeing buyers exhaustion and we're going down to revisit $300.
5m with notes
1h showing the anemic sad fake pump and rejection. Still within the channel though
Close up of the daily with indicators - note we still have a bearish MACD and also note the confluence of EMA, MA, and trend line support back down towards $300. Like jumping into a net
I still have no idea what this is. ES hourly
4H does look bullflaggy though. .236 fib is acting as resistance
15m IWM looking like a less noisy flag. One of the reasons i like trading it. already filled the gap as well
I mean..
Different view on the daily though
Two scenarios for VIX. Rounded bottom of bear flag. Tomorrow will tell
DJI looking similar to IWM but has not filled the gap yet
BUT - looking like a rejection from the 200 MA
NDX trying to tread water. Looks artificial
But then you look at XLF... leading to the downside
DJT looking like it wants to follow suit
Silver with a textbook trend like break retest
Gold generally undecided, but did get retraced pretty good today
Looks like, to me, a bullflag on the 10 yr as well
Markets giving mixed signals again today with painfully low volume until we finally got some movement in the last hour. Technically SPY looks like it could be flagging for a move higher, but also closed below key support today with half of my leading indicators pointing down, the other possibly pointing up. We have jobs numbers again tomorrow morning. Could be seized on to add some volume to the market and take us somewhere.
Hope you had a good day trading! Keep your heads on a swivel.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA. You are responsible for your own trades.
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Going for the gap. We'll see if they take it and try and keep us at $312.
NOTE: There are over 46k SPX call OI at $3100..
NOTE: There are over 46k SPX call OI at $3100..
Comentarios:
Today has nothing to do with anything else besides Quad Witching tomorrow and options expiration (i'll cover it later). Big money is going to fight for this $3100/$310 with everything they have.
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Third test of $312.10
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This is what i see. Notice how volume basically died once we got back to near $3120?
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Gametime for the bulls. We'll see if they came to play.
There was something at least a tad bullish in the worse than expected jobs numbers. Still no line into what it is. All the bulls have to do is keep their head above water at $312. Bear bogeys on the downside is $305 and $302.