SEPT 21st: Bearish Move Down

14 sept 2023

I believe there will be a bearish move down as there is a declining triangle appearing. The price target is usually calculated by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and subtracting it from the breakout point at the resistance line. This is just a estimate of price point, not a definite target.

Alternatively, the market could go up, but the indicators (wkly indicators) are supporting a downward movement .

Coincidentally, the tip of the triangle corresponds to the Fed meeting on Sept 19-20th.

But anything is possible!!

14 sept 2023

Nota

I apologize for the look of the chart; I drew it on my phone.

16 sept 2023

Nota

16 sept 2023

Nota

Theoretically, the market could go up or down, so I accounted for that in the above chart. But I suspect the market will go down based on the weekly indicators.

16 sept 2023

Nota

Please ignore the 1(L) to tail 0(R) on the second chart. That is just for my own reference.

16 sept 2023

Nota

The following is another idea of the potential targets of the drop based on Fibonacci levels. I think it could drop as low as 3.618

18 sept 2023

Nota

The market can start going down before the tip of the triangle. I believe it can go down from 2/3 of the triangle formation. The tip of the triangle is corresponding to the Fed Meeting on Sept 20th or if you redraw it slightly, the tip of the triangle could be Sept 28th which would correspond to the Initial Jobless Claims.

If I had to guess, I would put my money on Sept 28th as the jobless claim report comes out prior to the opening bell, which would allow the market to gap open. The daily indicators are already pointing to a downward move, yet the market is not moving downward just yet. This would be divergence between the market and the indicators also indicating a dramatic move in either an upward movement or downward movement. Again, I am suggesting it will be a downward movement as this is what the daily and weekly indicators are pointing towards.

18 sept 2023

Nota

I didn't realize there was a jobless claim report coming out this week on Sept. 21st. Since there is a jobless claim report coming out this week on Thursday after the Fed announcement on Wednesday, I suspect the market will go down this week as opposed to next week.

18 sept 2023

Nota

I am sorry for all these updates. I have a splitting headache right now so I am not thinking well. I am probably dehydrated.

I re-looked everything and I believe the market will go down this week after the Fed announcement until Sept 28th. The initial jobless claims report comes out that day which is before opening bell. This will be a positive report causing the market to gap up on Sept 28th. The market will go up for approximately 2 days (September 28th and 29th).

On Oct 2nd, there will be a gravestone doji. A gravestone doji is a candlestick pattern that is formed when the open, low, and closing prices are all near each other with a long upper shadow. This is a bearish candlestick pattern. Following that day, it will gap down on Oct. 3, dropping dramatically that day, and then gapping down on Oct. 4th and 5th significantly. Then on Friday, Oct.6th, the USA Unemployment Rate will come out prior to opening bell and the market will gap up because it was a positive report.

You may say I am guessing on this. I am not. This chart pattern has happened a few times in the past. I am just corresponding the economic data reports with the chart movements.

Happy trading and good luck to all!

23 sept 2023

Nota

I realize that I didn't draw the triangle tight enough and the move is not happening as fast like I anticipated, probably due to the low momentum. But the market is still moving lower. And you can see that the indicators are looking like they are showing a move up shortly probably in the next day or two. (Monday or Tuesday)

24 sept 2023

Nota

This next chart shows my tightened up triangle. I think when it hits the 2.618 Fibonacci level, it will bounce back up. AS I said above the indicators are showing a move back up very soon.

25 sept 2023

Operación cerrada: objetivo alcanzado

The target has been reached. The descending triangle dropped to the widest distance of the pattern as well the (hourly and daily) indicators are supporting an upward trend. I will draw a new chart where I think the new target is for the uptrend.

1 oct 2023

Nota

The target was actually hit on Sept 27th, 2 days after closed this trade. The target was hit but it took longer due to the lower momentum of the move.