At least until the last 20 mins of trading..
Today we saw more of the incoherent price movement that we've seen since Friday. And to me it's feeling a little toppy. Especially since we've seen such low volume and participation the algos essentially take the market where the quants want. The overall sentiment in America, not even the market, is uncertainty. And for some reason the market has decided to tune that out.
We had more conflicting signals in the market today than normal i feel like and what i thought was a diamond top on the small timeframes ended up being.. i have no idea. The last 15 mins of trading we had over 11m shares traded after essentially no meaningful volume all day. And 1.5m of that was traded in one 1 min candle. I don't understand at this point what the market is doing. There is nothing bullish out there. I know i have said myself that investors don't have a choice but today felt different. Today felt like a big **** you to everything going on. Any red candle we had print was immediately and aggressively bought by the algos and that pump at the end i'm not even sure how to explain. All day yesterday and today the market seems like it has been stalling with everyone in a wait and see mode, and that's generally my cue to get out.
I reduced long exposure today (most likely too early, as always) but going by market behavior something feels off and that shook me out of my longs more than anything. If i'm wrong i'm wrong but i feel like some shots were fired across the bow today.
And honestly the technicals, especially after the last 20 mins, point to even higher prices. Especially with a close over $305.87. But this feels artificial, and with the volatile news flow all we need is one incendiary headline overnight to have a pretty serious gap down.
Failed trade.
Keep this in mind as well
Analyze this however you may, but i see it as strange on no catalyst.
Technically this is a healthy, bullish chart besides the lack of volume the past couple days.
RSI divergences starting to build though
SPX finishing over the intermediate trend line
ES resolving to the upside
Bearish divergences still not resolving though
Daily looking perfectly healthy
IWM showing more relative strenght than the broader market today but not the same rally into close. Note that
Hourly doesn't look as healthy though with bearish divergences building
Daily is just fine. Needs to break $150
VIX threatening to confirm an uptrend in the broader market
NDX going for ATH...
No change for DJI, going for the 200
Silver, gold, and bonds wanting to confirm an uptrend as well. Which NO sense to me considering the current state of affairs
Keep in mind the market itself has no conscious. It has no emotion and neither should you when you're trading. Just because you THINK the market should do something usually means it won't. Go off of signals, and experience. Read the tea leaves, and follow the trend. But, to me the market looks toppy. I'm not sure how much more gas it has in the tank. So until then keep your head on a swivel and happy trading.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA.
Today we saw more of the incoherent price movement that we've seen since Friday. And to me it's feeling a little toppy. Especially since we've seen such low volume and participation the algos essentially take the market where the quants want. The overall sentiment in America, not even the market, is uncertainty. And for some reason the market has decided to tune that out.
We had more conflicting signals in the market today than normal i feel like and what i thought was a diamond top on the small timeframes ended up being.. i have no idea. The last 15 mins of trading we had over 11m shares traded after essentially no meaningful volume all day. And 1.5m of that was traded in one 1 min candle. I don't understand at this point what the market is doing. There is nothing bullish out there. I know i have said myself that investors don't have a choice but today felt different. Today felt like a big **** you to everything going on. Any red candle we had print was immediately and aggressively bought by the algos and that pump at the end i'm not even sure how to explain. All day yesterday and today the market seems like it has been stalling with everyone in a wait and see mode, and that's generally my cue to get out.
I reduced long exposure today (most likely too early, as always) but going by market behavior something feels off and that shook me out of my longs more than anything. If i'm wrong i'm wrong but i feel like some shots were fired across the bow today.
And honestly the technicals, especially after the last 20 mins, point to even higher prices. Especially with a close over $305.87. But this feels artificial, and with the volatile news flow all we need is one incendiary headline overnight to have a pretty serious gap down.
Failed trade.
Keep this in mind as well
Analyze this however you may, but i see it as strange on no catalyst.
Technically this is a healthy, bullish chart besides the lack of volume the past couple days.
RSI divergences starting to build though
SPX finishing over the intermediate trend line
ES resolving to the upside
Bearish divergences still not resolving though
Daily looking perfectly healthy
IWM showing more relative strenght than the broader market today but not the same rally into close. Note that
Hourly doesn't look as healthy though with bearish divergences building
Daily is just fine. Needs to break $150
VIX threatening to confirm an uptrend in the broader market
NDX going for ATH...
No change for DJI, going for the 200
Silver, gold, and bonds wanting to confirm an uptrend as well. Which NO sense to me considering the current state of affairs
Keep in mind the market itself has no conscious. It has no emotion and neither should you when you're trading. Just because you THINK the market should do something usually means it won't. Go off of signals, and experience. Read the tea leaves, and follow the trend. But, to me the market looks toppy. I'm not sure how much more gas it has in the tank. So until then keep your head on a swivel and happy trading.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA.
