SPY Projections

6 mar 2022

Analysis done on hourly and daily candles. Modern day traders who joined markets after the Covid-19 crash often turn a blind eye to opportunities outside of technology and innovative sectors, but this is a mistake. One thing we know about Wall Street is that they don't like to let their capital sit, so when it comes out of one industry they often move it to another. In the case of the recent months, we've seen capital flowing out of technology companies and into commodities, with the past weeks heavily moving into corn, wheat, precious metals, and energy. The recent geopolitical tensions have been the main catalyst for this capital rotation since Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of these commodities, and the war is putting pressure of world supply. Coming into the second week of March our focus remains around these commodities, but we understand that most of them are beginning to trade way into overbought levels so we have to be careful in position sizing and assess risk properly for swings. The market has also been providing many short/put option set ups on its downside moves, especially in the companies that were deemed over-valued during the pandemic recovery rally of 2020-2021. All in all, we're finding that the volatility is bringing opportunity, but we're also taking a much more selective approach on trades and holding for a shorter period to capitalize on the short term movements. Looking at SPY's chart, Friday's daily candle gapped to open below the 10 day MA line, which is going to be the main focus coming into this week. For a bullish scenario, you'd need that daily candle to recover above that MA line or else it can fail to break above and continue declining back to retest the 410.00 lows, this will provide short/put set ups in large caps like tech.