Just a tad bit exhausted.
I thought today with all of the positive news from the fed, to infrastructure spending to the gross beat on retail sales numbers that we were going to have a gap and go and we'd be back at $320 by EOD. But after a feeble attempted to get above resistance at $315 they dropped the ball. We did have a run at the gap and it did get bought up before we fully filled it, which is inherently bullish. But once we got back to around open we were pinned between $312 and $315. Any pop towards $315 was getting faded and any attempted test at $312 was bought up. Volume was still on the meh side but it was strange, we actually had what seemed like competing buyers and sellers. Towards the end of the day we started to roll over and the bulls looked like they were really getting exhausted with a bleed below $312 and a break of trend from yesterday's bottom. They did pull off a literal last minute rescue operation to get us back above $312 and back above trend. Chalk that one up for the bulls.
Daily wise we did have a confirmed reversal today. But there was no follow through and instead it was getting faded. One the hourly you could argue we just printed a bullflag for another move higher. But the fact is we're still getting pulled on a leash by the overnight futures traders. This is not a healthy market and there is no clear trend right now.
Bull case is we bounced from the demand/support zone around $300 and traded away from it but not really with as much enthusiasm as i'd like to see. Even with the help of the fed yesterday it was still unconvincing. We obviously gapped up like $8.00 or 80 points this morning which seemed like it was follow through from yesterday's close and also news induced. We also went for, and traded away from the gap left today without filling it. That's inherently bullish. If this is a bullflag the measured target would be somewhere around $329.50. We also closed above my support resistance line of $312.10 and the top trendline from the multi year megaphone pattern. I'd feel better if we actually made these moves in the cash session though instead of leaving a minefield of gaps in both directions.
Bear case is we're seeing buyers exhaustion or we're seeing big money not getting involved with buying up here. In fact, it looked like we had big money selling into strength. This move today or even if we move higher tomorrow could be viewed as a retest of the trading channel we broke last Thursday. Also, it looks like we could just have completed the B wave of an ABC corrective wave pattern. This wild west trading enviroment is indicative of an unhealthy stock, and we're trading more or less the U.S economy by trading SPY. Speaks for itself. Also, these econ projections or expectations have been grossly.. well, just wrong. It's the same thing they do with individual stocks when it comes to having a bad quarter. They'll downgrade expectations and technically they'll beat. But the numbers will be horrendous still. Hey, if it works there, it'll work for the economy too right? I should mention we also broke trend from yesterday's lows to today's highs.
5m. Notice the fight over these numbers. Also note the fades and the literal last minute rescue op to end us above trend
Hourly showing a possible bullflag
Or, you be the judge
Notice bullish gapfill attempt and also a close above support
I have absolutely no idea what this is. Looks disgusting. ES hourly
Still closing below resistance and .236 fib
IWM also printing what could be a bull flag, but also closed below key support
Remember IWM never gave up trend, and is above the .236 fib, but bounced off the 200 period daily MA
VIX finding support on the .5 fib from this last move.. but not looking to hot
XLF showing a confirmed reversal with a gap fill and closing above 100 period MA support
Same with DJT but actually leading
DJI actually opening on and trying to close above it's 200 period MA and failing. That's kind of a big oof
Silver with a retest of it's uptrend line.. Technically we should see this take a pretty serious downmove based on the pattern
Patiently waiting...
Bonds looked like they wanted to confirm a risk on attitude but say "nah nevermind, text you later"
Again mixed signals from the market and no clear trend. We could have either been bull flagging today for an move higher to close the gap at $320 and then possibly a measured target move to $329.50. We also could have just completed the B wave of am ABC corrective wave pattern. If we head back downwards the bogey is again $300. If we head upwards we need to break today's open and my target would be $319.
The only things i did today was sell some short dated premium.. I still have my main positions and will adjust once we get a clear trend.
Hope you all had a good trading day. Remember to keep your head on a swivel as we proceed into this thunderdome of a market.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA. You are responsible for your own trades.
I thought today with all of the positive news from the fed, to infrastructure spending to the gross beat on retail sales numbers that we were going to have a gap and go and we'd be back at $320 by EOD. But after a feeble attempted to get above resistance at $315 they dropped the ball. We did have a run at the gap and it did get bought up before we fully filled it, which is inherently bullish. But once we got back to around open we were pinned between $312 and $315. Any pop towards $315 was getting faded and any attempted test at $312 was bought up. Volume was still on the meh side but it was strange, we actually had what seemed like competing buyers and sellers. Towards the end of the day we started to roll over and the bulls looked like they were really getting exhausted with a bleed below $312 and a break of trend from yesterday's bottom. They did pull off a literal last minute rescue operation to get us back above $312 and back above trend. Chalk that one up for the bulls.
Daily wise we did have a confirmed reversal today. But there was no follow through and instead it was getting faded. One the hourly you could argue we just printed a bullflag for another move higher. But the fact is we're still getting pulled on a leash by the overnight futures traders. This is not a healthy market and there is no clear trend right now.
Bull case is we bounced from the demand/support zone around $300 and traded away from it but not really with as much enthusiasm as i'd like to see. Even with the help of the fed yesterday it was still unconvincing. We obviously gapped up like $8.00 or 80 points this morning which seemed like it was follow through from yesterday's close and also news induced. We also went for, and traded away from the gap left today without filling it. That's inherently bullish. If this is a bullflag the measured target would be somewhere around $329.50. We also closed above my support resistance line of $312.10 and the top trendline from the multi year megaphone pattern. I'd feel better if we actually made these moves in the cash session though instead of leaving a minefield of gaps in both directions.
Bear case is we're seeing buyers exhaustion or we're seeing big money not getting involved with buying up here. In fact, it looked like we had big money selling into strength. This move today or even if we move higher tomorrow could be viewed as a retest of the trading channel we broke last Thursday. Also, it looks like we could just have completed the B wave of an ABC corrective wave pattern. This wild west trading enviroment is indicative of an unhealthy stock, and we're trading more or less the U.S economy by trading SPY. Speaks for itself. Also, these econ projections or expectations have been grossly.. well, just wrong. It's the same thing they do with individual stocks when it comes to having a bad quarter. They'll downgrade expectations and technically they'll beat. But the numbers will be horrendous still. Hey, if it works there, it'll work for the economy too right? I should mention we also broke trend from yesterday's lows to today's highs.
5m. Notice the fight over these numbers. Also note the fades and the literal last minute rescue op to end us above trend
Hourly showing a possible bullflag
Or, you be the judge
Notice bullish gapfill attempt and also a close above support
I have absolutely no idea what this is. Looks disgusting. ES hourly
Still closing below resistance and .236 fib
IWM also printing what could be a bull flag, but also closed below key support
Remember IWM never gave up trend, and is above the .236 fib, but bounced off the 200 period daily MA
VIX finding support on the .5 fib from this last move.. but not looking to hot
XLF showing a confirmed reversal with a gap fill and closing above 100 period MA support
Same with DJT but actually leading
DJI actually opening on and trying to close above it's 200 period MA and failing. That's kind of a big oof
Silver with a retest of it's uptrend line.. Technically we should see this take a pretty serious downmove based on the pattern
Patiently waiting...
Bonds looked like they wanted to confirm a risk on attitude but say "nah nevermind, text you later"
Again mixed signals from the market and no clear trend. We could have either been bull flagging today for an move higher to close the gap at $320 and then possibly a measured target move to $329.50. We also could have just completed the B wave of am ABC corrective wave pattern. If we head back downwards the bogey is again $300. If we head upwards we need to break today's open and my target would be $319.
The only things i did today was sell some short dated premium.. I still have my main positions and will adjust once we get a clear trend.
Hope you all had a good trading day. Remember to keep your head on a swivel as we proceed into this thunderdome of a market.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA. You are responsible for your own trades.
Comentarios:
Keep your eye on this overnight. Bogey is 3080.
Comentarios:
Really thin book today. Little to no volume as well. Meaning any infusion of volume either direction can send the price higher or lower pretty drastically.
Comentarios:
And just like that.
Comentarios:
Large move inc.
Look at volume.
Look at volume.
Comentarios:
One of the lamest stop hunts in history.
