SPX weekly preview and what to watch for
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All in the video - 4400 is going to decide whether or not we continue the uptrend. For short term a little higher makes sense, but if this is a bear market rally, this is typical kind of movement. Sometimes they go a little higher, consolidate and pullback again. I cover everything in the video. Thank you for being patient and for your support.
Nota
Here's an inverse chart of SPX daily, good to look at for a different perspective. I've added the trendline as i think a little "lower"on this chart looks possible and that would be a perfect target. We want to consider this as a buy or sell from the structure. Nota
good morning, on futures a push up to create one more hourly bear divergence makes sense, but it doesn't have to happen. I still think the target is still slightly higher as of now. Nota
yields (TYX) are at daily BB support and showing hidden daily bullish divergence. If the market sells down, TYX climbing up again may be the reasonNota
15minute RSI hinting at one more high to create a divergent high, then I think it's probably coming down some. Nota
IWM and DJT both very weak today, sometimes a leading indicatorNota
the chance for another divergent high at the end of the day is quite good, but with IWM and DJT both showing weakness, I think tomorrow will be a down day. How much is hard to tell. Nota
Good morning, 15 minute RSI still looks like it wants to go higher on SPX, if so we could have a swing up in the morning to create a breakout scenario. With the divergence it may fail so caution is necessary. Nota
OK we have a Divergent high on the mid time frames now, Could certainly go higher but it's a warning that a pullback is likely soon. Nota
Boring day, and usually a creep up like this should not be shorted - aka "never short a creeping market". DJT and IWM both weak again today - two days in a row - but they both look like they are going to push up tomorrow. 18ma still at 4393 on SPX cash and I'm still thinking it gets there and slightly over 4400. They are taking their time now.Nota
Good morning, another attemt at the high overnight. Looks like a 5 wave move. Powell speaks at 915, so I still expect a push up to 4395-4400 where the 18 weekly MA is, then we'll see what happens. Nota
for those following USOIL the bear flag target has been reached. Nota
watching for a false breakout, RSI is warning of bigger reversal now. Nota
No guarantee's, but it would make sense for them to get above the previous highs to fill the gap on SPX I mentioned and convince bulls of a breakout. RSI on hourly will show triple bearish divergence. Nota
one more move up is likely with the RSI at these levels. I wouldn't get too excited yet. Nota
it's possible it's finished it's uptrend for now and we get a pullback. Certainly mid time frame rsi is bearish enough. Hard to say at this point. Really thought they would go higher first. Nota
the uptrend is still holding - higher lows and higher highs. With the hourly RSI showing hidden bull divergence another move up is still quite possible to my eye. I would be cautious here.Nota
yes so one more high is likely 4400+ Nota
another look at spx inverse chart, we're in the zone, but it can go down more - Nota
interesting about the close, they stopped at the trendline which broke in the morning. It's possibly a truncated 5th wave, I don't know. Tomorrow will tell us more. Nota
Nope no sell off overnight, so a crack at 4400 is still likely. - the gap fill could happen today with the Jobs numbers. Powell speaks at 2pm. I expect a strong move up. If they sell down, expect it to be bought. RSI still hinting at higher prices. Nota
If the upper trendline is correct ( market always goes higher than I expect) - 4420 may be the target. Nota
still a good chance this goes higher, another ABC like the others I think. Nota
this is likely going to short squeeze into and after Powell, then bears have a shot. Right here with the RSI this low on smaller time frames I don't think it goes down much more today - if at all. Nota
ok maybe they are going to sell it afterall, but i still don't like the rsi here. we are still making higher highs and higher lows so far. under the previous low would be more promising for bears. right now this just a dip.... Nota
USOIL getting a bid at support and bear flag target area. Could be foreshadowing some event. Nota
this move up still looks correct Nota
lower low, there are two supports, I suspect they will try to get to the higher one at 4370, it's an objective short opportunity Nota
first target if this doesn't go any higher (becoming less likely now) is 4321, the gap fill. Nota
Although today looked bad, the RSI is very VERY low on mid time frames and I usually find that's where the bear traps occur. Yes, it could be the top, however this could also be a 4th wave correction with 5 coming next. It wouldn't surprise me the least bit if they STILL got over 4400 tomorrow or into next week before a larger pullback. Nota
Hourly RSI hasn't been this low since the bottom - that's pretty extreme already . Nota
No continued sell off overnight, the chances for another high to take out shorts is possible with RSI this low on mid time frames. If they start making lower lows this will be invalidated. Nota
A higher high would complete the count and create what I would consider a bull trap. Nota
if they can't get over 4370 resistance the day will be down. Nota
for bears, a push up today would look better for a more substantial downside coming, but if they sell today likely it's an abc and we'll probably go higher starting next week. Either is possible, 4370 is key to keep going up to 4400+ today. Nota
trapped between support and resistance, a break and hold above or below will decide the direction for the rest of the day and probably into Monday. Nota
breaking up, if it holds target is still 4400+Good luck, out for the day.
Nota
just got back so quick update, targets have been reached - 4400 area. Gap on SPX cash and spy filled. 18ma weekly reached. Certainly this can go higher but we're having steep bearish divergence on the mid time frames now. Personally I think we'll come down next week, how much is uncertain at this point. Have a good weekend!Nota
if we go higher from here 4450 would be next - daily BB area. Nota
Good morning, i have continued this analysis in the next video - 
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