SPX short trade update

30 dic 2018

Just an update

Entered a short trade on the 3rd Dec and will look to take profit soon in order to re-enter for the 5th wave of wave C down.

Sorry about my wave degrees, I just prefer the smaller degrees to avoid clutter.

1 ene 2019

Nota

Average price not quite that high, in the 2780s though

8 ene 2019

Nota

Should hit 2580 tomorrow

8 ene 2019

Nota

Also the target for wave (v) down isn't 2300. I haven't charted it yet but something closer to 2200 - 2250 probably.

9 ene 2019

Nota

2579.2... not quite 2580

20 ene 2019

Nota

After a good entry, I will admit that this trade isn't now working out like I intended. The wave count is difficult to pin down but the present rally isn't wave 4. It appears that the ABC correction has completed, with wave C extended 1.618 of wave A. The Shiller PE ratio has risen to 29.36 in the last week. I am retaining my position with a stop at break even.

There are positive signs for those who are shorting - daily RSI has peaked around 60. According to Constance Brown RSI rules; 60 will act as resistance in a bear market. So I will be on the lookout for weakness - which will lead me to add to my short position.

2 feb 2019

Nota

Of course I didn't take into account that the Fed would come out and say they are holding off further rate increases - because they are needed for when the US enters the next recession (most analysts say within 2 years and some say July 2019 (as Victor Sperandeo did recently)). So... free money everyone let's try to re-inflate the bubble.

Peter Schiff, a recent video youtube.com/watch?v=imvFC_GDoks, says the Fed has capitulated and that is not a good thing. He strongly implies that dropping the interest rate to zero was a one way journey.

Hyperinflation is becoming more of a probability when they announce QE4 and QE5. The S&P IS in a bear market - this uptrend is a correction, not the start of a new uptrend to higher highs. Call me a bear or whatever, but recent decisions have made it almost certain that there will be a deeper crash when it happens.