Virgin Galactic.Continuation.Correction according to new data.

3 oct 2021

Virgin Galactic.

My thoughts about the company, industry.

A high-risk asset.

The desire to acquire a part of the company appears only if the profit from the asset is not less than the profit with the same risk from other assets that we can acquire. If the risk is greater -> premium risk is paid -> bigger estimated profit. The risk of the company consists of systematic (the risk of the economy as a whole) and diversifiable risk. It is believed that diversifiable risk is fully diversified (disappears when the company is added to a portfolio) -> Risk premium is paid only for systemic risk. In this case, since there are no similar companies, diversification is relative. -> More risk and potential profit (due to the presence of unsystematic risk.). The systematic risk, in this case, is also relative because there is little that can greatly change the situation in this industry (unless, of course, you expect a new great depression). In general, I wanted to tell you that this asset, in my opinion, is less dependent on the economy as a whole than other assets(the risk premium is smaller), but here we are paid for our unsystematic risk. (balance in the universe)(This is a feature of this asset, in my opinion.)(And I like this feature because something strange is happening in the economy right now.)

In my opinion, nothing good should happen in the near future. (Many different factors can lead to a drop of 20%, as well as their absence since the value of the company is determined by its payments, which are less and less over time (the time value of money), then there is no information about the next payments, we postpone them -> it reduces the value of the company. The growth of oil can become this factor (do not forget about other conglomerate companies)).

Disclaimer/

On average, 90% of all stocks move down with the market, and 75% move up.
The wave principle applies to some extent to individual stocks, but counting the waves for them is often confusing and does not have much practical significance. But since the company has a large capitalization, we assume that the state of the shares depends on the psychology of the masses.