Might be about to see bull trap failure in SOL

5 sept

Bull traps have gotten more tricky in modern times with us having to account for various types of trickery, but the basic model for a bull trap (Or any reversal off a retracement) is to look for a 76 retracement.

Here's the strategy for this.

So many crypto charts look like this. All of them screaming bull trap.

ETH has been developing for a while.

COIN looks exactly the same.

In general, the best performing crypto during the rally looks like this classic bull trap. With others not even being able to manage a respectable bull trap.

The only thing that's been giving the crypto market a half decent case for new breakouts was the BTC, but since that it's downtrended for 6 months.

Crypto looks very vulnerable.

14 sept

Nota

Bull trap zone filled.

14 sept

Nota

Conventional SR rules have it as new lows are breakouts and sell signals and while is usually going to be broadly right, it's often specifically wrong.

3/4 times when there's a breakout there's going to be some sort of pullback. Run away breakouts are rarer.



Some corrections are simple and shallow and more are much more complex and deeper (This often depends on the nature and stage of a trend).

The shallow simple retest level is filled now. If this level bear trapped there'd be risk of a sharp spike up to near the start of the last drop. Which would be optimal spot to try the short again (And likely trigger an exit and change of bias if it failed).

So if we break up here I plan to size down so I can size up again at the higher RR level. But it's possible this is the end of the retracement. We have everything we commonly see in a bull trap in a strong trend.

The 76 correction.
The ABC (2 leg bull trap).
A harmonic spike out (W).

If we sell into a new low now, that's a strong sign of trend continuation.

Trends are progressive. They start slow, speed up and then end in a frenzy.

Then eventually, one of the breakouts does not even bother to bull trap - and there's capitulation.

If the sequence of lower highs and lower lows persists, this can be where we're heading.

14 sept

Nota

14 sept

Nota

Here's the deeper bull trap setup.


This is my fave trade setup. If we break above 141 I think the odds of this filling are more likely.

No reason to bet against the bear confluence zone that holds the high for now. May as well wait and see if it downtrends or breaks.

17 sept

Nota

Stops to even on added positions.

Looking good for trend cont here.