Carnage in precious metals

8 dic 2023

What a week it’s been for gold and silver. Around two weeks ago, gold finally burst above a band of resistance between $2,000 and $2,010. It came back and tested that upper level on Tuesday, before bouncing. But this level was more severely tested on Friday afternoon, and we’re now seeing a break under $2,000. Gold and silver plunged in the aftermath of stronger-than-expected US non-Farm Payroll data. The Unemployment Rate came in lower than expected, while Average Hourly Earnings came in higher. This has raised the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its March 2024 meeting. Ahead of the data release the market was pricing in a 25 basis-point cut, with more to follow. The dollar has rallied, and precious metals are under severe selling pressure. This is devastating bullish investors who were looking forward to more sustained gains going into 2024. As for silver, at the beginning of this week, silver hit its best levels since May this year, just short of $26 per ounce. But like Icarus it fell almost as quickly as it climbed. At the time of writing it is threatening to break below $23. Is this the end of the bullish road for gold and silver? Or an incredible buying opportunity? Both have broken below significant support, and the MACD is inconclusive. Here’s the daily silver chart, showing additional support just above $22.