QQQ at $820: Madness or Possibility?

21 sept

Disclaimer: First and foremost, it's important to clarify that this analysis is not a buy recommendation, nor was it made with the expectation that prices will definitely reach this target. The goal here is to share a technical perspective and offer another piece of information for traders and investors to consider. In technical analysis, especially in the classical approach, there are no certainties. My intention was simply to share an interesting idea I noticed while applying concepts from the literature.


Hey everyone, I’ve been looking at the weekly chart of QQQ, and it seems we’re following a pretty healthy uptrend. From what I’m seeing, we might be on the way to a wave 5 (Elliott Wave) of this upward move, which is quite interesting. To back up this analysis, I took a look at John Murphy’s classic book, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, to review Fibonacci projections.

Applying Fibonacci to Wave 5

John Murphy gives some great tips on how to project the top of wave 5 using Fibonacci. In chapter 13 (page 346), he says the following:

"The top of wave 5 can be approximated by multiplying wave 1 by 3.236 (2x1.618) and adding that value to the top or bottom of wave 1 for maximum or minimum targets."

And there's another one:

"Where waves 1 and 3 are roughly equal, and wave 5 is expected to extend, a price target can be obtained by measuring the distance from the bottom of wave 1 to the top of wave 3, multiplying it by 1.618, and adding the result to the bottom of wave 4."

Applying This to the Weekly QQQ Chart

So, I applied these ideas to the QQQ weekly chart and, honestly, I came up with a wave 5 target between $820 and $830. Yes, it seems quite far from the current levels, and I admit that at first, it sounded a bit exaggerated. But, following Murphy's reasoning, these are the numbers that make sense based on Fibonacci projections.

But is that realistic?

I know, it’s a bit of a surreal target, right? $820 - $830 is far off, especially considering where we are now, but following the Fibonacci rules that John Murphy describes, we can’t entirely rule out this possibility. 😅 Even though these values might seem unlikely at first glance, technical analysis encourages us to keep an open mind about future possibilities.

Still, one question struck me while doing this analysis: What could actually make wave 5 extend this much?

I'd love to hear your thoughts! Do you think there are other factors at play that could push the price this high, or is this projection too ambitious? Share your insights in the comments, and let's discuss it together!