QQQ - Short Swing

18 jul

After 18 months of bull run, it is time for a solid correction. In my previous post from February 2023, I outlined my rough count and levels for the last wave up, here are my thoughts for the way down:

• Assuming we go down, we will likely see last attempts of distribution and maybe another notch up. Some sellers may still need buy orders to fill. This could result in volatile days, nasty dojis, et cetera. I will short every blow off attempt given the RR.
  
• No idea how long it takes. If it feels like an eternity, double that. Deep pockets do not care about time.
  
• Volume has declined since the last leg up. We might see a sharp move down first, and then take it easy on the second leg. Third or last might be nasty. Nice for day traders, irrelevant swing traders.
  
• I have looked at a lot more than you can see in charts.
  
  My main target is 360ish (~30%). If that breaks, we might go for 336. If hell breaks lose for whatever reason, sub 300, or lower.
  
  There will be outperformers and underperformers, like in this last leg up. Yes, AI is great however, actual value to enterprises and monetisation of it remain to be seen, and we have not even started to regulate or legislate the crap out of it.
  
  I might be wrong; surely hope so for permabulls out there but I cannot see any bullish signs here no matter how hard I look.
  
  Good Luck