Counter-Trend Scenario Likely
Actualizado
*Drops from the roof*
Hello There!
Review:
- So my portfolio is now up by 20% in just over 2 weeks and I've closed all my SQQQ positions. I did give back some profits today unfortunately but that's how she goes.
- The AI remains medium to long term BEARISH on stonks. All stonks.
- Mid September is STILL possible for the main leg down. As in we still could have a rally. Even October can have a reversal. This period will be very wild and choppy so short term traders eat your hearts out.
When:
- Next 2-3 trading sessions (Sept 1st, 2nd, 6th). If it doesn't happen then or we go penetrate the reversals (red horizontal lines) then we have a cycle inversion. Flip short cause we're gonna fall like a rock for the next week or two.
- Close your positions by Sept 7 or 8 cause we're probably going to crash hard then or you'll get chopped to pieces.
Where:
- 298.10 - 297.8 Level. If we hold above 298.1 at best or 297.8 at worst (closing) then we're talking a very likely rally of at least a few percent.
Why:
- Tomorrow I expect a gap down from looking at the futures but I actually am bullish short term.
- Below we have a big thorny briar patch of 3 daily Bearish Reversals. It takes a LOT of energy to breach these. However...
- We are declining on energy. This crash is subsiding temporarily.
- We've had multiple rejections off of them.
- We didn't make a new low today.
- RSI is diverging intraday but still down on the daily level.
- Most importantly the AI is giving a timing array for a LOW tomorrow. We can STILL go down further but we need to close below 297.8 to mean the market's really failing.
- The array is also giving a very beautiful gradient for a rally. Probably the cleanest set up I've seen since March.
Option A) TQQQ (Long)
- Wait for closing above afore mentioned levels (298.1 etc) and take a long position.
Option B) SQQQ (Short)
- Wait for close below said levels, flip short, and enjoy the view as we fall into the abyss.
Rules of engagement:
- Counter-trend plays are inherently high risk meaning you use half size or 1R (ie 1% of your account risked vs 2%). I wouldn't even do that. Break even stops are better. Use 15 min - 60 min candles for an entry.
- These should primarily be day trades. If you want to swing then wait for the closing above or below critical levels imho. Repeat: Exiting long positions by close is highly recommended.
- Lastly if we do nothing or do a sideways doji or something for a few sessions then we're probably going to rally.
Hello There!
Review:
- So my portfolio is now up by 20% in just over 2 weeks and I've closed all my SQQQ positions. I did give back some profits today unfortunately but that's how she goes.
- The AI remains medium to long term BEARISH on stonks. All stonks.
- Mid September is STILL possible for the main leg down. As in we still could have a rally. Even October can have a reversal. This period will be very wild and choppy so short term traders eat your hearts out.
When:
- Next 2-3 trading sessions (Sept 1st, 2nd, 6th). If it doesn't happen then or we go penetrate the reversals (red horizontal lines) then we have a cycle inversion. Flip short cause we're gonna fall like a rock for the next week or two.
- Close your positions by Sept 7 or 8 cause we're probably going to crash hard then or you'll get chopped to pieces.
Where:
- 298.10 - 297.8 Level. If we hold above 298.1 at best or 297.8 at worst (closing) then we're talking a very likely rally of at least a few percent.
Why:
- Tomorrow I expect a gap down from looking at the futures but I actually am bullish short term.
- Below we have a big thorny briar patch of 3 daily Bearish Reversals. It takes a LOT of energy to breach these. However...
- We are declining on energy. This crash is subsiding temporarily.
- We've had multiple rejections off of them.
- We didn't make a new low today.
- RSI is diverging intraday but still down on the daily level.
- Most importantly the AI is giving a timing array for a LOW tomorrow. We can STILL go down further but we need to close below 297.8 to mean the market's really failing.
- The array is also giving a very beautiful gradient for a rally. Probably the cleanest set up I've seen since March.
Option A) TQQQ (Long)
- Wait for closing above afore mentioned levels (298.1 etc) and take a long position.
Option B) SQQQ (Short)
- Wait for close below said levels, flip short, and enjoy the view as we fall into the abyss.
Rules of engagement:
- Counter-trend plays are inherently high risk meaning you use half size or 1R (ie 1% of your account risked vs 2%). I wouldn't even do that. Break even stops are better. Use 15 min - 60 min candles for an entry.
- These should primarily be day trades. If you want to swing then wait for the closing above or below critical levels imho. Repeat: Exiting long positions by close is highly recommended.
- Lastly if we do nothing or do a sideways doji or something for a few sessions then we're probably going to rally.
Comentarios
Up 6%. In TQQQ at 26.21 (corresponds to 293.7; I forgot to draw it unfortunately).Comentarios
*Just to clarify there was another reversal at 293.7 which I didn't add on to my idea but had on my chart. Market came 85 cents under it before flying off. The next Bullish Reversal is at 316.4 so that would be a decent price target. Undercutting then rallying off of FOUR Bearish Reversals is very VERY good. I plan to add as we go up.Comentarios
Gapped up on non-farm payrolls. Added at 27.93 (high of previous day). Stops are set for 27.1 (averages to break even).Comentarios
Took some profit in the morning bounce then shorted down on the reversal. Nothing has really changed. Nice looking dojis on the hourly though. Next week will have high probability of a follow through.Comentarios
Account up 3%. Average TQQQ 26.2.Comentarios
New reversal and targets on the array have been generated: Bullish Reversal at 305.00, a direction change, AND turning point on Friday. Also energy models have turned DOWN currently. If I had to pick a similar set up I would point to January 31 to the February 2nd counter trend.- If we don't close above 305 by Friday then we are going to test the 288.07 area shortly.
- I am likely going to close by Thursday close we don't rally very sharply. Latest Friday.
- If we have something that looks like a doji or an exhaustion gap on Friday then I will go short.
- Curiously futures are making a bull flag tonight.
- There is a SLIGHT chance of a cycle inversion due to the short week (holidays can cause major targets to overlap or carry over a day).
Comentarios
For clarity"Cycle Inversion
Normally each turning point produces the opposite of the previous. However, a Cycle Inversion takes place most often on a breakout or a break down in a market. That means that instead of the opposite, when two turning points both produce the same event, a high or a low, caution is warranted for you may see a very strong movement."
Comentarios
Took profit in pre-market for 4%. Right now it's coiling for a bigger move tomorrow so I'll probably re-enter then.Comentarios
Decided to add heavy to my account at mid-day once I saw the break out of the 60 minute inside candles and holy smokes I'm glad I did cause the futures are flying tonight. Bears getting smoked at open.Comentarios
Holy smokes we might go outside week lmao.Comentarios
Okay just crossed a bullish reversal. If we close above 305.00 we elect it and then 318.00 WILL be tested.Comentarios
And we're outside week (aka bullish engulfing)
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