Chart of premium/discount of PSLV, and volume ratio

21 feb 2021

The top of this chart is the ratio of PSLV price to XAGUSD (Silver spot price). PSLV holds 0.361 Ozs of silver per share/unit.

• Lines are drawn for P/NAV=1, and at 1 and 2% premium levels.
  
• Since PSLV is a closed end fund, it may trade at a premium.
  
• However, PSLV has a shelf offer allowing them to add shares/silver, which they have been doing.
  
• By viewing the data in this form, you can guess at when they are adding shares (price drops due to the new supply)
  
• If adding PSLV, chart can be used to find good times to buy (when shares are being added), and avoid paying high premiums.
  

The bottom of this chart is the ratio of PSLV shares traded to SLV shares traded, normalized by the ounces per share for each fund. I.e. it is the ratio of silver traded for each fund.

• High volumes for PSLV correlated with a premium decrease on the top chart generally indicate shares/silver are being added
  
• Growing volume indicates a growing market preference for PSLV over SLV
  
• Chart is an EMA - the periods of the EMA can be changed to provide more or less smoothing
  
• EMA is used rather than an MA to reduce lag
  

21 feb 2021

Operación activa

To tell the full story, this chart needs the inflows into PSLV. The days with inflows correspond to higher volume, and a drop in the premium. The larger the inflow, the larger the drop in premium. 29 Jan, for example had 6.4M Ozs added.