NVIDIA
Largo

Option Chain Before Earnings - $NVDA huge CALL skew

Actualizado
This week, keep an eye on NVDA , which will release its quarterly earnings on Wednesday.

Here are this week’s earnings releases implemented by the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator for Tradingview:
  • 08/28 Wednesday after market close: NVDA , CRWD , CRM
  • 08/29 Thursday after market close: MRVL


The Options Overlay indicates that NVDA's call skew is above 55% at 54DTE, meaning that CALL options are priced 55% higher than PUT options for the binary expected move distance.

This suggests that the market is pricing in a strong upward move.

[ NVDA Price Targets ]

The yellow curve represents the binary expected move, while the blue curve shows the 16-delta OTM options. The green rectangle highlights the area where you can potentially profit from the butterfly trade if the earnings report meets bullish market expectations.

Upward price levels:
  • 7/8 - 138
  • 8/8 - 150


Downward price levels:
  • 6/8 - 125
  • 5/8 - 112


If you agree with the market’s bullish sentiment, one of the best R:R trades might be a directional NVDA call butterfly. You can buy it for $109 with the nearest Friday expiration, with a maximum (theoretical) profit of nearly $900. It’s worth executing this trade before the earnings announcement. Note that the green dashed line is theoretical; while it's not a traditional trendline according to classic TA, the long-term upward trend is still quite clear

  • Expiry: Aug 30
  • Legs: 1x140C -2x150C + 1x160C
  • Net debit: ~$100
  • Max profit: $890
Nota
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Nota
the watched call butterfly is now just 0.9db, so I like to wait right before earnings.
Operación activa
NVDA trade opened.... finger crossing 😄 I finally bought it for 0.95db
Upper break-even: I am good to almost 170, or if we fall, I have a QQQ bearish BWB position open in negative delta, for credit.....
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