NIFTY - "Eight Wonder" Expiry Curse!

13 abr 2023

Nifty, bulls relentless, print one more closing high. Penetrate vital 17800 area, briefly fall around noon. The last three hours of move pushing back above 17800 looks incremental short covering. In the recent past continuous fall or rise for more than 6 trading days is rare with the exception of recent fall in the second half of February. It was nine days of fall. Now we complete eight days of rise with lots of holidays in between. De-mark indicators suggest 8 and 13 are important numbers where one can expect reversal. We have 8 days of up-move, and the day is 13 and week expiry. Probability of corrective move is high. In terms of absolute points, it was 870 points down now 916 points up. In the down move it had three gap downs, we have five gap up opens. While down it was 150 points below 200 DMA, now we are 250 points above 200 DMA. An hourly close below 17770 prints evening star at crucial resistance, inviting moves to 17680. Elsewhere despite the lower inflation (core still rising), the expectation of recession, which will filter into the corporate profits, leads to profit taking. We have our own TCS results. The lower-than-average number of net additions would sure be noticed as a sign of business expectation. With lower than forecasted numbers, either a profit taking, or a fall one can expect. The dividend can cushion the extreme fall. This is one of the heavy weighted index of the NIFTY hence needs watch along with INFY which is going to announce results today. For the day Short stops yesterday high or open plus 30 points for take profit of 70 points.