NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

The market continues see the struggle to retain control by Bulls and Bears. The Index actually broke the key support zone of 19500-19450 to test a low of 19333 and recovered to close the week at 19653. The ensuing week also expected to remain volatile due to recent developments in the Geo-Political risk perceptions.

A few observations from the weekly charts are:

• The index moved in a range of 342 points viz. between 19333 and 19675
  
• The oscillators of different time frames are showing mixed signals
  
• Option open interest to drive the direction of the market
  

 
Expected scenarios for the ensuing week

• The ascending channel is redrawn with the new support seen from the lows of the week.
  
• After removing the outliers, the Nifty Index is moving in an ascending channel with a top at 20430 and lower end support at 19360 with a pivot at 19930
  

Additional interesting observations

• The Bears still holds fair control and would continue to attempt selling every rally till the index is below crucial zone of 19880 – 19960
  
• Index may find supports at 19540, 19440, 19360 and the index could face resistances at multiple levels 19770 and 19880, 19960, 20060
  
• There has been a few Gaps created in this bull run
  
• 18818-18908 (28th Jun 23) far off for now
  
• 18972-19079 (29th July 23) far off for now
  
• 19189-19246 (3rd July 23) far off for now
  
• 20063-20133- Got filled yet a new Gap created 20133-19980*
  

Final Note

• The Index has stayed well above the long-term trend line and the 200 DMA at 18517 and is hovering around the 55 DMA at 19623
  
• The ascending channel is redrawn with the levels supported during this week and it appears that there are chances that the Index may bounce back or at least consolidate in a smaller range before taking further direction
  
• Expected to consolidate remain in the range of 19460-19960 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
  
• The Daily chart has a hammer with a confirmation and the target for the same is 19860. Similarly, the weekly chart finished with a hammer and pending confirmation would have its target till 20500
  
• Expect the regular SIP investments to support for a consolidation above 19500
  
• The distinct fault lines lie at 19450 on the lower end and 19880 on the higher end
  
• Expect for the Geo-political backlashes the set-up appears to be positive for a re-attempt of 20K
  

#Stay Safe

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.