INDEX WEEKLY UPDATE

31 oct 2022

GLOBAL UPDATE
-we had a discussion two weeks ago in our small community
-we discussed that usa market may have bottomed out with 75 bps rate hike factored in nov
-the reason being that markets in usa usally bottom out six months ahead of fed pivot
-market has now factored in the worst
-mid-term election coming up in the america
-dollar index negative divergence in full action
-dollar index giving signs of global market bottoming out
-signs of pivot is being sensed by the market
-on the technical front the levels double bottom breakout in sp 500 and dow jones
-the big bear trendline is also about to be tested in dow jones
-double bottom is a good sign of trend reversal signal
-bearish trendline breakout will be used for confirmation
-on the otherside japan markets are at record lows
-more quantitative easing was seen with 220 billion dollar

INDIAN MARKET UPDATE
-our markets are in sweet spot
-excellent numbers by banks
-psu bank looking strong
-dollar index topped out is the biggest thing for the financial stocks
-observed something important
-dii have handed over the baton to fii to carry the markets higher
-fii long exposure now at 57%
-the important thing in this rally is that index is being managed by index heavy weights
-reliance lt and maruti all looking strong
-we are looking strong now and finally it seems we are ready to break 18000


NIFTY TECHNICAL
-sgx has tricked everyone quite a few times
-we are trading in a rising channel in 30-min chart in nifty
-major level are being taken out
-now for nifty the crucial level to watch is 18070-18120 zone
-if this zone is taken out we are moving towards all time high
-nifty resistance level of 17780-17830 now will act as support after gap-up
-note we are gap-up and sellers are pushing market lower and then covering shorts in closing
-one fine day this will stop and we might see follow throug on one side
-30 mins above 18050 will lead to major short-covering

CRUCIAL SUPPORT
17780-17730-17650
CRUCIAL RESISTANCE
17860-17950-18040

BANKNIFTY TECHNICAL
-banknifty did not participate on friday
-but did see short-covering in last 30-min
-banknifty on the verge of making a new all-time high again
-psu bank stock are telling you the story
-the results posted by banks gives us an indicating of the strength in the banking system
-dollar index cooling down will provide boost to indian financial market
-expecting a strong rally after the fed event and the rbi policy is over after 4th nov
-technical banknifty is strong in higher time-frame
-but is loosing strength in smaller time frame to nifty
-all good signs consolidation before major event
-a move above 42000 is end game for shorts

CRUCIAL SUPPORT
40700-40500-40300
CRUCIAL RESISTANCE
41450-41650-41850


NOTE
-index is at crucial zone
-sgx nifty is daily giving false signal
-if we do open above 18000
-we will see major shorts being trapped
-open in the zone of 17930-17980 will initally trigger algo shorts
-but eventually it needs to be seen how the dip is brought
-we will eventually then see short-covering towards the second half of the day
-question is are we going to see the same price action from past 3 days or we are going to trend now
-hidden chart pattern in nifty monthly
INDEX WEEKLY UPDATE



DISCLAIMER:-
-the above view is my personal opinion
-please take adivse of your financial adviser
-please manage risk
-do proper risk maangement

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