NAS100 Technical Analysis and Next Week's Trading Plan
Trend Overview:
NAS100 has recently completed Wave 5 of a higher-degree impulsive structure, indicating a potential trend reversal or a corrective move is imminent. This is consistent with Elliott Wave Theory, where after a 5-wave move, the market typically retraces in a corrective 3-wave pattern (ABC).
Key Structural Observations:
Wave 5 Characteristics: Sharp rally towards 21,247.5 suggests exhaustion of bullish momentum as it aligns with a liquidity zone.
Significant Break of Structure (BOS): A bearish BOS at the daily level signals potential trend weakness.
2. Technical Components
A. Elliott Wave Analysis
Current Count:
Wave 5 Completion: The chart shows Wave 5 at 21,247.5.
Expectation: A corrective Wave ABC towards lower levels, targeting key support zones.
Next Move:
Wave A: Likely to move toward the dealing range low (20,465.8).
Wave B: A shallow retracement before further downside.
B. Harmonic Patterns
Bearish Harmonic Pattern Completion:
The harmonic structure completes near 21,247.5, a confluence zone marked by Fibonacci extensions (0.786 of Wave 4 and 1.272 extension of Wave 3).
Expect strong selling pressure near this level.
Harmonic Implications:
Downward targets align with Fibonacci retracements:
38.2% at 20,758 (minor support).
61.8% at 19,777.5 (major support).
C. Order Flow and Liquidity
Liquidity Zones:
Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL): Stops above 21,247.5 represent trapped buyers in the rally, making this level a magnet for liquidity grabs.
Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL): Stops below 20,465.8 will likely get targeted during the correction.
Point of Control (POC):
POC at 19,493.2: A high-volume area that aligns with the lower end of the dealing range, marking a potential demand zone.
D. Volume Profile
Volume Concentration:
Significant buying volume occurred in the range 20,758–19,888, suggesting this range will act as initial support during a pullback.
Low Volume Areas (LVAs):
Thin volume between 21,000 and 21,247 indicates potential for a rapid decline if selling pressure emerges.
3. Key Levels
Resistance Levels:
21,247.5:
Major swing high and harmonic completion zone.
High-probability reversal area.
Support Levels:
20,758: Minor support (38.2% retracement).
19,777.5: Major support (61.8% retracement).
19,493.2: Final support zone (Point of Control and low of dealing range).
4. Next Week's Trading Plan
Scenario 1: Bearish Move (Primary Plan)
Short Setup:
Entry: Enter short positions near 21,247.5, targeting liquidity above this level.
Stop Loss: Set stops above 21,300 (beyond the invalidation of Wave 5).
Profit Targets:
Target 1: 20,465.8 (sell-side liquidity zone).
Target 2: 19,777.5 (major Fibonacci support).
Target 3: 19,493.2 (POC/demand zone).
Rationale:
Exhaustion of Wave 5 aligns with harmonic completion and liquidity grab.
Scenario 2: Bullish Move (Secondary Plan)
Bullish Setup:
Entry: Enter long positions if price retraces to 20,758–19,777.5 and shows bullish rejection (e.g., pin bar, engulfing candle).
Stop Loss: Set stops below 19,424.3 (final invalidation of bullish structure).
Profit Targets:
Target 1: 21,138.9 (prior swing high).
Target 2: 21,247.5 (retest of highs).
Rationale:
The correction might end within the identified dealing range, providing a favorable risk-reward for longs.
5. Key Validation and Invalidation Levels
Bearish Bias Invalidated:
Sustained break above 21,300 suggests continued bullish momentum.
Bullish Bias Invalidated:
Break below 19,424.3 invalidates bullish correction, signaling deeper retracement.
6. Risk Management
Position Sizing: Keep risk per trade between 1-2% of capital.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Aim for 3:1 or higher.
Max Loss for the Week: Do not exceed 5% drawdown.
7. Additional Considerations
Economic Calendar: Monitor macroeconomic data that could impact U.S. indices.
Market Sentiment: Watch for news and earnings that may affect NAS100 components.
Live Order Flow: Track changes in real-time to confirm bearish/bullish moves.
NAS100 has recently completed Wave 5 of a higher-degree impulsive structure, indicating a potential trend reversal or a corrective move is imminent. This is consistent with Elliott Wave Theory, where after a 5-wave move, the market typically retraces in a corrective 3-wave pattern (ABC).
Key Structural Observations:
Wave 5 Characteristics: Sharp rally towards 21,247.5 suggests exhaustion of bullish momentum as it aligns with a liquidity zone.
Significant Break of Structure (BOS): A bearish BOS at the daily level signals potential trend weakness.
2. Technical Components
A. Elliott Wave Analysis
Current Count:
Wave 5 Completion: The chart shows Wave 5 at 21,247.5.
Expectation: A corrective Wave ABC towards lower levels, targeting key support zones.
Next Move:
Wave A: Likely to move toward the dealing range low (20,465.8).
Wave B: A shallow retracement before further downside.
B. Harmonic Patterns
Bearish Harmonic Pattern Completion:
The harmonic structure completes near 21,247.5, a confluence zone marked by Fibonacci extensions (0.786 of Wave 4 and 1.272 extension of Wave 3).
Expect strong selling pressure near this level.
Harmonic Implications:
Downward targets align with Fibonacci retracements:
38.2% at 20,758 (minor support).
61.8% at 19,777.5 (major support).
C. Order Flow and Liquidity
Liquidity Zones:
Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL): Stops above 21,247.5 represent trapped buyers in the rally, making this level a magnet for liquidity grabs.
Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL): Stops below 20,465.8 will likely get targeted during the correction.
Point of Control (POC):
POC at 19,493.2: A high-volume area that aligns with the lower end of the dealing range, marking a potential demand zone.
D. Volume Profile
Volume Concentration:
Significant buying volume occurred in the range 20,758–19,888, suggesting this range will act as initial support during a pullback.
Low Volume Areas (LVAs):
Thin volume between 21,000 and 21,247 indicates potential for a rapid decline if selling pressure emerges.
3. Key Levels
Resistance Levels:
21,247.5:
Major swing high and harmonic completion zone.
High-probability reversal area.
Support Levels:
20,758: Minor support (38.2% retracement).
19,777.5: Major support (61.8% retracement).
19,493.2: Final support zone (Point of Control and low of dealing range).
4. Next Week's Trading Plan
Scenario 1: Bearish Move (Primary Plan)
Short Setup:
Entry: Enter short positions near 21,247.5, targeting liquidity above this level.
Stop Loss: Set stops above 21,300 (beyond the invalidation of Wave 5).
Profit Targets:
Target 1: 20,465.8 (sell-side liquidity zone).
Target 2: 19,777.5 (major Fibonacci support).
Target 3: 19,493.2 (POC/demand zone).
Rationale:
Exhaustion of Wave 5 aligns with harmonic completion and liquidity grab.
Scenario 2: Bullish Move (Secondary Plan)
Bullish Setup:
Entry: Enter long positions if price retraces to 20,758–19,777.5 and shows bullish rejection (e.g., pin bar, engulfing candle).
Stop Loss: Set stops below 19,424.3 (final invalidation of bullish structure).
Profit Targets:
Target 1: 21,138.9 (prior swing high).
Target 2: 21,247.5 (retest of highs).
Rationale:
The correction might end within the identified dealing range, providing a favorable risk-reward for longs.
5. Key Validation and Invalidation Levels
Bearish Bias Invalidated:
Sustained break above 21,300 suggests continued bullish momentum.
Bullish Bias Invalidated:
Break below 19,424.3 invalidates bullish correction, signaling deeper retracement.
6. Risk Management
Position Sizing: Keep risk per trade between 1-2% of capital.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Aim for 3:1 or higher.
Max Loss for the Week: Do not exceed 5% drawdown.
7. Additional Considerations
Economic Calendar: Monitor macroeconomic data that could impact U.S. indices.
Market Sentiment: Watch for news and earnings that may affect NAS100 components.
Live Order Flow: Track changes in real-time to confirm bearish/bullish moves.
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Operación cerrada: objetivo alcanzado
🚨 Monday Trading Plan Update: "Patience is Key" 🚨
📅 Objective: Gain clarity by observing Monday's price action and the daily close.
🌟 Plan Breakdown
🛑 Sit-Out Mode (Main Strategy)
Mondays often bring choppy, unclear moves. By waiting for the daily close, we can spot:
Where key levels are forming.
How price reacts to these levels.
When to position for high-probability setups.
🎯 Scalp Option (For the Brave)
If you must trade, stick to small, low-risk scalps. Use high-confluence setups and tight risk management.
🔍 Why This Approach?
💡 "Not trading is also trading."
Avoid unnecessary losses from impatience.
Prepare for higher-quality setups later in the week.
Start the week with a clear and disciplined mindset.
📊 What to Observe Today:
Key levels and reactions.
Sentiment from market participants.
Volatility and range for the week.
💎 Key Takeaway
"Trading is a marathon, not a sprint." Starting your week with patience helps you trade smarter and align with your strategy.
Let's stay sharp, observe the market, and prepare for the opportunities ahead. 💪
Nota
If you could master one trading skill this year, what would it be?Nota
How do you stay focused and motivated during periods of drawdown?Nota
📊 End of Day Thoughts
Today’s market showed a lot of indecision, with price consolidating around key levels. For me, it was a reminder that waiting for clarity is just as important as taking trades. Tomorrow, I’ll be watchingfor potential setups
Nota
GB - CBI Distributive Trades (NOV)
Outcome: Bearish for GBP.
Rationale: The drop to -6 (below zero) indicates declining retail sales expectations.
Best Crossover: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP – Watch for GBP weakness.
US - Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SEP)
Outcome: Neutral.
Rationale: Slight variations in MoM (-0.3%) and YoY (5.2%) are unlikely to significantly impact USD.
Best Crossover: Neutral observation for real estate-related assets.
US - CB Consumer Confidence (NOV)
Outcome: Bearish for USD.
Rationale: A drop (108.7 vs. 112) suggests waning consumer optimism.
Best Crossover: USD/CAD, XAU/USD – Potential dollar weakness and gold rally.
US - New Home Sales (OCT)
Outcome: Neutral to bullish for USD.
Rationale: A positive revision (4.1% MoM) could support economic sentiment.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY.
US - FOMC Minutes
Outcome: Volatile; depends on tone.
Rationale: Hawkish tone supports USD; dovish tone weakens it.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY, XAU/USD.
Nota
What value do you see in joining a trading community that provides personalized mentorship?Nota
AU - Monthly CPI Indicator (OCT)
Outcome: Bearish for AUD.
Rationale: A drop to 2.1% YoY inflation signals reduced price pressures.
Best Crossover: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY – Look for AUD weakness.
US - Core PCE Price Index (OCT)
Outcome: Neutral for USD.
Rationale: Consensus alignment (0.3%) keeps inflation expectations steady.
Best Crossover: Neutral impact.
US - Durable Goods Orders (OCT)
Outcome: Mixed for USD.
Rationale: Ex-transportation data (0.5% → 0.6%) bullish, but headline number (-0.7%) bearish.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY – Watch for volatility.
US - GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est (Q3)
Outcome: Bullish for USD.
Rationale: 3% growth outpaces previous expectations, supporting economic strength.
Best Crossover: USD/CAD, EUR/USD – Dollar strength likely.
US - Personal Spending (OCT)
Outcome: Bullish for USD.
Rationale: Increased spending (0.5%) reflects consumer confidence.
Best Crossover: USD/CHF, XAU/USD.
US - Goods Trade Balance (OCT)
Outcome: Bearish for USD.
Rationale: A widening deficit (-108.23B vs. -99.9B) pressures the dollar.
Best Crossover: EUR/USD, USD/JPY.
Nota
I hope everyone had a successful trading week and was able to secure some profits! As we look ahead, make sure to stay up to date with the latest market updates. Set alarms on my page and enable email notifications so you don’t miss out on next week's swing opportunities.
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La información y las publicaciones que ofrecemos, no implican ni constituyen un asesoramiento financiero, ni de inversión, trading o cualquier otro tipo de consejo o recomendación emitida o respaldada por TradingView. Puede obtener información adicional en las Condiciones de uso.
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones que ofrecemos, no implican ni constituyen un asesoramiento financiero, ni de inversión, trading o cualquier otro tipo de consejo o recomendación emitida o respaldada por TradingView. Puede obtener información adicional en las Condiciones de uso.